Vergi gelirleri ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Türkiye ekonomisi üzerine eşbütünleşme ve nedensellik analizi

Bu çalışmanın amacı; Türkiye’de vergi gelirleri ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki eşbütünleşme ve nedensellik ilişkisinin incelenmesidir. Bu bağlamda çalışmada 1998:I-2011:IV dönemi için eşbütünleşme ve hata düzeltme metodolojisinden faydalanılmıştır. Vergi gelirlerinin büyüme üzerindeki etkisi analiz edilirken toplam vergi gelirleri ile birlikte dolaylı ve dolaysız vergi gelirleri de kullanılarak analiz derinleştirilmiştir. Yapılan ampirik analiz neticesinde dolaylı vergiler ile ekonomik büyüme arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişki saptanmıştır. Ayrıca kısa ve uzun dönemde dolaylı vergi gelirlerinden ekonomik büyümeye doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir. Diğer taraftan hem dolaysız vergi hem de toplam vergi gelirleri ile ekonomik büyüme arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişkiye rastlanmamıştır. Ancak dolaysız ve toplam vergi gelirleri ile büyüme arasında çift yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular ışığında Türkiye’de 1998-2011 döneminde dolaysız vergi gelirlerinin ekonomik büyümeyi etkilemede kısa dönemde daha etkin olduğu; ancak uzun dönemde dolaylı vergi gelirlerinin de ekonomik büyümeyi etkileyebileceği sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Relationship between tax revenues and economic growth: A cointegration and causality analysis for turkish economy

The aim of this study is to investigate the long run and causal relationship between tax revenues and economic growth in Turkey over 1998:I-2011:IV periods employing cointegration and error correction methodologies. The analysis which covers growth impact of tax revenues is detailed using direct and indirect tax revenues along with total tax revenue. Findings obtained from empirical analyses indicate that there is a long run relationship between indirect tax revenues and economic growth. In addition, there exists a uni-directional causality running from indirect tax revenues to economic growth in both short and long run. On the other hand, no cointegration is detected between direct/total tax revenues and economic growth. However, there exists bi-directional causality running between direct/total tax revenues and economic growth. In the light of all these findings, it is found that indirect tax revenues are relatively more efficient on economic growth in the short run. Nonetheless, direct tax revenues become also effective on economic growth in the long run following this interaction in Turkey over the periods 1998-2011.

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