Türk ekonomisinin dış ticaret yapısı ve ekonomik büyüme

Bu çalışmada, ihracat ve ithalat yönlü büyüme hipotezleri çerçevesinde, 1998-2011 Haziram döneminde, Türkiye'nin GSYİH'sının büyüme dinamiğine ihracat ve ithalatın katkısı araştırılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre; ithalatın gerek tek başına ve gerekse ihracat ile birlikte GSYİH'nın artışına sebep olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Türk ekonomisinin ithalata dayalı ihracat yapısı doğrulanarak ihracatın ithalata sebep olduğu ortaya konulmuştur. Ayrıca, ihracat ve GSYİH'daki artışın birlikte de ithalatta artışa sebep olduğu tespit edilmiştir.

The structure of turkish foreign trade and the economical growth

In this study, the scope of export and import oriented growth hypothesis, export and imports' contribution to the dynamic of the Turkish GDP Growth have been investigated during the period between 1998 and 2011 June. According to the diagnoses which are found, the imporatation alone and together with exportation causes GDP growth. The import dependency of Turkish economy is proven again and it is determined that exportation causes importation. On the other side, exportation and GDP growth together leads to increase in an increase in importation.

___

  • ABUAL-FOUL, B. (2004), "Testing export-led growth hypothesis: evidence from Jordan", Applied Economics Letters, 11: 393-396.
  • AFXENTIOU, P. C. andA.SERLETIS (1991): Exports and GNP causality in the industrial countries: 1950-1985, Kyklos, 44: 67-79.
  • AKBAYO. S.(2011) Trade-Growth Nexus: Turkish Case. Euro Economica .Issue 2(28)/2011 ISSN: 1582-8859
  • ALICI, A.A. and M.S.UCAL (2003). Foreign Direct Investment, Exports and Output Growth of Turkey: Causality Analysis. European Trade Study Group (ETSG) Fifth Annual Conference, Madrid.
  • AWOKUSE, O. (2004), "Is the export-led growth hypothesis valid for Canada?". Canadian Journal of Economics, 36: 126-136.
  • AWOKUSE, O. (2005): Export led growth and the Japanese economy: Evidence from VAR and acyclic graph, Applied Economic Letters, 12: 849-858.
  • BALASSA, Bela (1971)The structure of Protection in Developing Countries. Baltimore John Hoskins Univercity Press
  • BALASSA, Bela (1978) Exports and Economic Growth: Further Evidence, Journal of Development Economics, 5, 1:181-189, June 1978.
  • BALASSA, Bela (1982) Development strategies in semi-industrial economies. NY and London. Oxford Univercity Press
  • BALASSA, Bela (1985)Export, Policy Choices and Econonmic Growth in Developing Counties after 1973 Oil Shock. Journal of Development Economics. 18(2), 23-35
  • BALASSA, Bela (1988): The lessons of East Asian development: an overview, Economic Development and Cultural Change, Journal of Development Economics, 36: 273-290. Balassa, B. (1978): Export and economic growth—further evidence, Journal of Development Economics, 5(2): 181-189.
  • BEN-DAVID, D. and Loewy, M. B. (1998): Free trade growth and Convergence, Journal of Economic Growth, 3: 143-170.
  • BHAGWATI, Jagdish. (1978) Anatomy and consequences of export control regimes. Cambridge MA. Ballinger Publication Co. for NBER.
  • BİLGİN, C. veA.ŞAHBAZ (2009) Türkiye'de Büyüme ve İhracat Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkileri. Gaziantep Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi 8(1): 177-198 ISSN: 1303-0094
  • BOLTHO, A. (1992): Was Japanese growth export led?, Oxford Economic papers, 48: 415-432.
  • BUFFIE, E. (1992): On the condition for export-led growth, Canadian Journal of Economics, 25: 211-225.
  • ÇETİNTAŞ, H. (2004). "Export and Economic Growth (in Turkish). Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi İşletme Fak. Dergisi, 5(1), 23-34.
  • CHOW, PC. (1987), "Causality between exports growth and industrial development". Journal of Development Economics, *26: 55-63.
  • ÇİL Y.N. (2004). Causality Relationship between Export and Economic Growth in Turkey (in Turkish), Sosyal Siyaset Konferansları Dergisi. 49, 961-972.
  • DARRAT, A.F. (1987), "Are exports an engine of growth? Another lock at the evidence".Applied Economics, 19: 277-283.
  • DEMİRHAN, Erdal (2005) "Büyüme Ve İhracat Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği", Ankara Üniversitesi Sbf Dergisi, 60 - 4, Ekim-Aralık, 75-88.
  • DEMİRHAN, E. ve S. AKÇAY (2005) "İhracat Artışı Ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi: Seçilmiş Mena Ülkeleri İçin Amprik Kanıt", İktisat - İşletme Ve Finans, 20:230, May ıs.
  • DİCKEY, D.A. ve FULLER W.A. (1979), "Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, p. 427-431.
  • Edwards, S. (1998). Openness, productivity and growth: What do we really know? Economic Journal 108(March):383-398.
  • ENGLE R. ve C. GRANGER (1987); "Cointegration and Error-Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing", Econo-metrica, March
  • ERDOĞAN, S. (2006). Türkiye'nin İhracat Yapısındaki Değişme ve Büyüme İlişkisi: Koentegrasyon Ve Nedensellik Testi Uygulaması. Selçuk Üniversitesi Karaman I.I.B.R Dergisi. Sayı 10
  • FEDER, Gershon (1983) On exports and economic growth. Journal of Development Economics. 12(1/2) 59-73.
  • GERNİ, C., Ö.S. EMSEN ve M. K. DEĞER (2008) İthalata Dayalı İhracat ve Ekonomik Büyüme: 1980-2006 Türkiye Deneyimi .2. Ulusal İktisat Kongresi / 20-22 Şubat 2008
  • GILES, J. A. and C. L. WILLIAMS, (2000): Export-led growth: a survey of empirical literature and some non-causality results, Part 1, Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, 9: 265- 341.
  • GRABOWSKI, R, S. C. SHARMA, and D.DHAKAL (1990): Exports and Japanese economic development, Economic Letters, 32: 127-132.
  • GRANGER, C. (1969). Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods, Economet-rica, (37).
  • GRANGER C. (1988) Aggregation of Time Series Variables-A Survey. Institute of Emprical Macroeconomics and Univercity of Minesota.
  • GREY, Patricia ve Hans SINGER (1988) Trade Policy and Growth of Developing Countries: Some New Data. World Development Review 16 (3), 395-403
  • HALICIOĞLU, F. (2007). A Multivariate Causality Analysis of Export and Growth for Turkey. Munich Personal RePEc Archive (MPRA), Paper No. 3565.
  • HATEMİ, J. A. (2002): Export performance and economic growth nexus in Japan: a bootstrap approach, Japan and World Economy, 14: 25-33.
  • HELENEIR, Gerald (1986) "Outward Orientation, Import Instability and African Economic Growth: An Emprical Investigation" in theory and reality in development: Essays in Honour of Paul Streeten. Eds: Sanjaya Lall and Frances Stewart .London Mac-mil I ian, 139-153
  • HUTCHINSON, Michael ve Nirvikar SINGH (1987) Exports and Growth in Developing Economies: Identifying Externality Effects. Working Paper. Univercity of California. Santa Cruz
  • IŞIĞIÇOK, Erkan (1994). Zaman Serilerinde Nedensellik Çözümlemesi. Bursa: Uludağ Üniversitesi Basımevi.
  • İSPİR, M. S., B. AÇIKGÖZ ERSOY ve M.YILMAZER (2009) Türkiye'nin Büyüme Dinamiğinde İhracat mı İthalat mı Daha Etkin? Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, Cilt:24, Sayr.1, 59-72.
  • İZMEN, Ümit ve Kamil YILMAZ (2009) Turkey's Recent Trade And Foreign Direct Investment Performance, Tüsiad-Koç University Economic Research Forum Working Paper Series, 0902
  • JUNG, Woo ve Peyton MARSHALL (1985) Exports, Growth and Causality in Developing Countries. Journal of Development Economics. 18(2), 1-12
  • KARAGÖZ, M. and A.ŞEN (2005). Exports and Economic Growth of Turkey: Cointegration and Error-Correction Analysis. Elektronik Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 4, 1-15
  • KARLUK, Rıdvan. Türkiye Ekonomisi, İstanbul, Beta Yayınları, 1997.
  • KHAN, A. and N. SAQIB (1993), "Exports and economic growth: the Pakistan experience", International Economic Journal, 7: 54-64.
  • KOTİL, E. ve F. KONUR (2010) The Relationship between Growth and Foreign Trade in Turkey: A Granger Causality Approach (1989-2007).Middle Eastern Finance and Economics ISSN: 1450-2889 Issue 6 (2010) © EuroJournals Publishing, Inc. 2010
  • KÖSEKAHYAOĞLU, L. ve C.ŞENTÜRK (2006) İhracata Dayalı Büyüme Hipotezinin Testi: Türkiye ve Yeni Gelişen Ekonomiler Üzerine Karşılaştırmalı Bir İnceleme. Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi Yıl:2, Sayı 4
  • KRUEGER, Anne (1978) Foreign trade regimes and economic development: Liberalisation attempts and consequences . Cambridge MA. Ballinger Publication Co. for NBER.
  • KWAN, A. and C. COTSOMITIS, (1990): Economic growth and expanding export sector: China 1952-1958, International Economic Journal, 5:105-116.
  • LITTLE, Ian, Tibor SCITOVSKY ve Maurice SCOTT (1970)ln-dustry and Trade in Developing Countires. London & NY. Oxford Univercity Press for OECD.
  • McCARVİLLE, M. and E. NNADOZIE (1995), "Causality tests of export-led growth: the case of Mexico", Atlantic Economic Journal, 23: 140-5.
  • MICHAELY, Michael (1977) Exports and Growth: An Emprical Investigation. Journal of Development Economics. 4(1), 49-53
  • MICHAELY, Michael, Demetris PAPA GEORGİU ve Armeane CHOSKI (1991) Liberalizing Foreign Trade. Vol.7. Lessons of experience in the developing world.Oxford and Cambridge, MA. Basil Blackwell
  • MILANOVIC, B., 1986, "Export Incentives and Turkish Manufactured Exports: 1980-1984" World Bank Staff Working paper, No. 602.
  • MOSCHOS, D. (1989): Export expansion, growth and the level of economic development: an empirical analysis, Journal of Development Economics, 30: 93-102.
  • MUNDELL, Robert A. (1964), "Tariff Preferences and the Terms of Trade", Manchester School of Economic and Social Studies, vol.32, 1-13.
  • ÖZMENE. ve G.FURTUN (1997), ''Export - Led Growth Hy-photesisi And The Turkish Data: An Emprical investigation",EreWorking Paper, No:97/5.
  • ÖZMEN A, M. ÖZER, and S.TURKYILMAZ (1999). An Application on Causality between Export and Economic Growth in Turkey (in Turkish). Marmara Üniversitesi Yayını, No. 640, 379-392.
  • PANAS, E. and G.VAMVOUKAS, (2002) Further evidence on the export-led growth hypothesis, Applied Economics Letters, 9, 731-5.
  • PREBISCH, Raul (1950)The economic development of Latin America and its principal problems. NY: United Nations, 1950.
  • RAM, R. (1985). "Exports and Economic Growth: Some Additional Evidence", Economic Development and Cultural Change, Vol. 33, No: 2,417.
  • ROBERTSON, DM. (1938) The Future of International Trade, Economic Journal, 48, Reprinted in American Economic Association (1958) Readings in the Theory of International Trade, London: Allan & Unwin: 497-531.
  • SAATÇİOĞLU, C. and O.KARACA (2004). Causality Relationship between Export and Growth in Turkey: The Impact of 1980 Transformation (in Turkish). Yönetim Dergisi, 15(49), 30-40.
  • SHARMA, S. C., N. M. NORRİS, and D. W. CHUNG (1991): Exports and economic growth in industrialized countries, Applied Economics, 23:697-707.
  • SINGER, Hans W (1950) The Distribution of Gains Between Investing and Borrowing Countries" American Economic Review. May 1950, 40 (2) 473-485.
  • SINGUPTA, J. and J. ESPANA (1994), "Exports and economic growth in Asian NICs: an econometric analysis for Korea". Applied Economics, 26: 41-51.
  • TABAN, S. Ve I. AKTAR (2005) "An Empirical Examination Of The Export Led-Growth Hypothesis In Turkey", First International Conference On Business, Management and Economics, Yaşar Üniversitesi, Izmir.
  • TAKIM A. (2010). Relationship between GDP and Export in Turkey: Granger Causality Analysis (in Turkish). Atatürk Universi- ** tesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 14(2), 1-16.
  • TEMİZ, Dilek (2009) Gümrük Birliği İle Birlikte Türkiye'nin Dış Ticaretinde Yapısal Değişimler Oldu Mu? Ankara Avrupa Çalışmaları Dergisi Cilt: 8, No: 1,115-138
  • TEMİZ, D. ve A. GÖKMEN (2010) An Analysis of the Export And Economic Growth in Turkey over the Period of 1950-2009. International Journal of Economic and Administrative Studies. Year:3 Number:5, Summer 2010 ISSN 1307-9832
  • THORNTON, J. (1996), "Cointegration, causality and export-led growth in Mexico 1895-1992", Economics Letters, 50: 413-416.
  • TOGAN S., (1993), 1980'li Yıllarda Türk Dış Ticaret Rejimi ve Dış Ticaretin Liberizasyonu, Türk Eximbank Yayını, Ankara.
  • TUNCER, I. (2002). Export, Import and Growth in Turkey Granger Causality Analysis with Toda-Yamamoto Method : 1980-2000 (in Turkish). Çukurova Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 9, 90-106.
  • TYLER, Willian (1981) Growth and Export Expansion in Developing Countries. Journal of Development Economics. 9 (1), 121-130
  • UĞUR, A. (2008). Import and Economic Growth in Turkey: Evidence from Multivariate VAR Analysis, Journal of Economics and Business, 1(2), 54-75.
  • VINER, Jacob (1950) The Customs Union Issue, Londra, Stevens & Sons Ltd.
  • WORLDBANK. (1987) World Development Report. Oxford Uni-vercity Press
  • YAMADA, H. (1998): A note on the causality between exports and productivity, Economic Letters, 61:111-114.
  • YAPRAKLI, S. (2007) İhracat ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki nedensellik: Türkiye üzerine ekonometrik bir analiz. ODTÜ Gelişme Dergisi, 34, 97-112
  • YİĞİDİM, A. ve N.KÖSE (1997), "İhracat ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki, İthalatın Rolü: Türkiye Örneği", Ekonomik Yaklaşım, Cilt: 8, Sayı :26, 71-85.