Teorik Perspektiften Para Krizi Modelleri ve Kurumsal Model Örneği

Ülkeleri ekonomik istikrarsızlık ve finansal kırılganlıklara açık hale getiren çeşit- li etkenler vardır. Siyasal, ekonomik, teknolojik ve ekolojik alanlarda yaşanan de- ğişme ve gelişmeler ekonomik krizlerin ortaya çıkmasına neden olabilmektedir. Ancak krizlerin ortaya çıkmasında temel faktör olarak finansal sistemdeki zayıf- lıklar, bir başka ifade ile sistemin işleyiş, denetleme ve düzenlemesine yönelik eksiklikler ön plana çıkmaktadır. Bu çalışmada ilk olarak birinci, ikinci ve üçün- cü nesil para krizi modelleri gözden geçirilmiştir. İkinci olarak para krizi modelleri- ni açıklamada kurumsal faktörleri dikkate alan dördüncü nesil modellerin literatür taraması sunulmuştur. Bu modellerde zayıf kurumsal yapılar, krizlerin oluşma- sında temel nedenlerden birisi olarak gösterilmektedir. Bu görüşe göre, ülkelerin ekonomik ve finansal yapısı doğrultusunda olası makroekonomik dalgalanmalar göz önünde bulundurularak, ekonomik ve finansal sistemin işleyişinin, düzenleyi- ci ve denetleyici mekanizmalarla geliştirilmesi büyük önem arz etmektedir.

Currency Crisis Models and an Institutional Currency Crisis Model from a Theoretical Perspective

There are various causes that make countries vulnerable to economic instabiliti- es and financial fragilities. The changes and developments in politic, economic, technological, and ecological areas can cause economic crises. However, the weaknesses of financial system is pointed out as the main factor in the emergen- ce of crises. In other words, deficiencies in operation, control and regulation of the system is at the forefront of emergence of crises. In this study, in the first ins- tance, first, second and third generation currency crisis models are reviewed. Se- cond, a review of fourth generation models which consider institutional factors in explaining currency crisis models are presented. In these models, weak instituti- onal structures are considered as one of the main reasons of crises. According to this view, considering possible macroeconomic cycles compatible with country’s economic and financial structure, improving economic and financial system with regulatory and supervisory mechanisms is very important.

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