Enflasyon Hedeflemesi Rejimi Para Politikası Güvenilirliğini Arttırır mı?

Enflasyon hedeflemesi rejimi, sayısal bir enflasyon hedefinin açıklanmasını, Merkez Bankasının açıklamış olduğu bu hedefe sadık kalma sözü ile, iletişim ve şeffaflık stratejisine dayalı bir para politikasıdır. Enflasyon hedefi para politikası- nın nihai amacıdır. Aynı zamanda bu rejim güvenilirlik (kredibilite) sorununu çö- zebilecek bir politika olarak sayılmaktadır. Bu alanda yapılmış olan çalışmalar te- orik ve ampirik olarak kredibilite sorunu riskine karşı alınabilecek önlemleri ince- lemiştir. Literatürde yer alan bu önlemlerin çoğunu, enflasyon hedeflemesi rejimi, zaten içinde barındırmaktadır. Politika özellikleri gereği zaman tutarsızlığı prob- lemini de ortadan kaldırarak, enflasyon hedeflemesi rejimi, güvenilirlik derecesi- ni arttırmaktadır.

Does Inflation Targeting Increase the Credibility of Monetary Policy?

Inflation targeting is a monetary policy based on the announcement of a target inflation rate and an engagement of respect to the announced target by the Cent- ral Bank and on a strategy of communication and transparency. Then the target inflation is the final goal of the monetary policy. Its also a policy that allows sol- ving the credibility problem. The present paper identifies the means by which inf- lation targeting improves the credibility. The previous theoretical andempirical re- searches on this subject are about how to avoid this credibility issue. The inflati- on targeting regime already includes most of these measures. Due to the natu- re of policy, it disables the problem of time inconsistency whilst inflation targeting regime increases the credibility.

PDF

___

ALESINA, Alberto, Alternative monetary regimes : a review es- say, Journal of Monetary Economics, 1988, Vol. 21, No.1, p. 175-183.
BARRO, R., J.&GORDON, D., B., 1983, A positive theory of monetary policy in a natural rate model, Journal of Political Economy, No. 91, p. 589-610.
BARRO, R., J.&GORDON, D., B., 1983b, Rules, discretion and reputation in a model of monetary policy, Journal of Mon- etary Economics, No. 12, p. 101-121.
BEETSMA, Roel M.W.J., BOVENBERG, A. Lans, Central bank independence and public debt policy, Journal of Economic Dy- namics and Control, 1997, Vol. 21, p. 873-894.
BERTOLA, G., SVENSSON, Lars E.O, Stochastic devaluation risk and the empirical fit to target-zone models, Review of Eco- nomic Studies, 1993, Vol. 60, No. 3, p. 689-712.
BERTOLA, Giuseppe, CABALLERO, Richard, Target zones and realignments, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, 1990, CEPR Discussion Paper No. 398.
BLACKBURN, K.&CHRISTENSEN, M., 1989, Monetary policy and policy credibility: theories and evidence, Journal of Eco- nomic Literature, Vol. XXVII, p. 1-45.
CATENARO, M., 2000, Time inconsistency: an updated sur- vey of the literature, Working Paper No. 29, Universita degli Studi di Milano. CHRISTENSEN, Michael, Disinflation, credibility and price in- ertia: A Danish exposition, Applied Economics, (1987a), Vol. 19, No. 10, p. 1353-1366.
CHRISTENSEN, Michael, On interest rate determination, test- ing for credibilitiy policy and the relevance of Lucas critique, European Journal of Political Economy, 1987b, Vol. 3, p. 369- 388.
CRAWFORD, Vincent P., SOBEL, Joel, Strategic information transmission, Econometrica, 1982, Vol. 50, No. 6, p. 1431- 1451.
De HAAN, Jakob, STURM, Jan Egberg, The case for Central Bank independence, Banca Nazionale del Lavaro Quarterly Journal,1992, Vol. 0, No. 182, p. 305-327.
FAUGERE, J.-P., 1991, Les règles monétaires génératrices de crédibilité. Eléments de critique des thèses des nouveaux classiques, Revue Française dEconomie, Vol. VI, No. 4, p. 227-280.
KEMPF, H., 2000, Règles et discrétion, dans Analyse Mac- roéconomique 2, sous la direction de HAIRAULT, J.O, editions La Découverte, Paris.
KREMERS, Jeroen J.M., Gaining policy credibility for a disinfla- tion-Irelands experience in the EMS, IMF Staff Papers, 1990, Vol. 37, No. 1, p. 116-141.
KRUGMAN, Paul, Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynam- ics, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1991, Vol. 106, No. 3, pages 669-82.
KYLAND, F., E.&PRESCOTT, E., C, 1977, Rules rather than discretion: The inconsistency of optimal plans, Journal of Po- litical Economy, No. 85, p. 473-491.
LUCAS, Robert Jr., STOKEY, Nancy L., Optimal fiscal and monetary policy in an economy without capital, Journal of Mon- etary Economics, 1983, Vol. 12, No.1, p. 55-93.
MOUROUGANE, A., 1997, Crédibilité, indépendance et politique monétaire une revue de la littérature, Série des documents de travail de la Direction des Etudes et Synthèses Economiques, G 9721, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques.
PERSSON, Mats, PERSSON, Torsten, SVENSSON, Lars, E.O., Time consistency of fiscal and monetary policy, Econo- metrica, 1987, Vol. 55, No. 6, p. 1419-1431.
PERSSON, T., 1988, An introduction and a broad survey, Eu- ropean Economic Review, No. 32, p. 519-532.
PERSSON, Tabellini, An introduction and a broad survey, Euro- pean Economic Review, 1988, No. 32, p. 519-532.
PERSSON, Torsten, Van WIJNBERGEN, Sweder, Signalling, Wage Controls and Monetary Disinflation Policy, National Bu- reau of Economic Research Working Papers, 1989, NBER WP No. 2939.
RODRIK, Dani, Promises, Promises: Credible Policy Reform via Signalling, Economic Journal, 1989, Vol. 99, No. 397, p. 756-772.
SVENSSON, L., E., O., 1997, Optimal inflation targets, con- servative central banks, and linear inflation contracts, Ameri- can Economic Review, No. 87, p. 98-114.
SVENSSON, Lars E.O., The simplest test of target zone cred- ibility, IMF Staff Papers, 1991, Vol. 38, No.3, p. 655-665.

Finans Politik ve Ekonomik Yorumlar Dergisi-Cover

ISSN: 1307-7112
Yayın Aralığı: Yılda 4 Sayı
Başlangıç: 1963
Yayıncı: İSTANBUL OKAN ÜNİVERSİTESİ

Arşiv

Sayıdaki Diğer Makaleler

Bütçe Sürecinde Mali Saydamlık ve Hesap Verebilirliğin Önemi

Hakan BAKKAL, ALPER KASIMOĞLU

Optimal Rezerv Düzeyi: Türkiye Uygulaması

DİLEK ÖZDEMİR, KEREM KARABULUT