SEÇİLMİŞ MAKROEKONOMİK DEĞİŞKENLERİN TÜRKİYE’DEKİ KONUT FİYAT ENDEKSİ ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ

Bu çalışmada konut fiyatının faiz oranı, döviz kuru, para arzı ve enflasyon oranı gibi makroekonomik değişkenlerden nasıl etkilendiği araştırılmaktadır. Konut arzı ve konut talebi konut fiyatını belirleyen faktörlerdir. Bir yanda konut arzının boyutları; inşaat maliyetini, yatırıma hazır haldeki arsayı ve konut stokunu kapsamaktadır. Diğer yanda ise konut talebi boyutu; faiz oranı, enflasyonun göstergesi olan tüketici fiyat endeksini, geliri, nüfus artışını ve istihdam oranını içermektedir. Makroekonomik değişkenlerin etkilerinin daha doğru ölçülebilmesi amacıyla Merkez Bankası tarafından belirlenen konut fiyat endeksi değişkeni kullanılmıştır. Türkiye'de 2010-2023 dönemine ait aylık verilere dayalı olarak VAR modelleri kullanılmaktadır. Bu şekilde etki tepki fonksiyonu ve varyans ayrıştırma analizi yapılarak seçilen makroekonomik değişkenlerin konut fiyat endeksi üzerindeki etkisinin yönü ve derecesinin bulunması amaçlanmaktadır. Bu analiz bulgularına göre faiz oranı ve döviz kurunun konut fiyat endeksi üzerinde anlamlı etkisi olmuştur. Varyans ayrıştırma analizi sonrasında elde edilen sonuçlar doğrultusunda 10. dönem sonunda konut fiyat endeksi üzerinde faiz oranının %19, döviz kurunun ise %14 etkisinin olduğu tespit edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Konut Fiyat Endeksi, Tüketici Fiyat endeksi, M1 Para Arzı, Reel Faiz Oranı, Reel Döviz Kuru

THE EFFECT OF SELECTED MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES ON THE HOUSING PRICE INDEX IN TURKEY

This study investigates how the house price is affected by macroeconomic variables such as interest rate, exchange rate, money supply and inflation rate. Housing supply and housing demand determines house price. On the one hand, housing supply dimensions covers contruction cost, existing land, housing stock. On the other hand, housing demand dimension involves interest rate, consumer price index as the indicator of inflation, income, population growth and employment rate. In order to measure the effects of macroeconomic variables more accurately, the housing price index variable determined by the Central Bank was used. Depending upon monthly data for the period 2010-2023 in Turkey, VAR models are used. In this way it is intended to find the direction and degree of the effect of selected macroeconomic variables on the house price index by performing impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis. According to this analysis findings, interest rate and exchange rate had a significant effect on the house price index. In line with the results obtained after the variance decomposition analysis, it was determined that the interest rate had a 19% effect and the exchange rate had a 14% effect on the house price index at the end of the 10th period.

Keywords:

House Price Index, Consumer Price Index, M1 Money Supply, Real Interest Rate, Real Exchange Rate,

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