KÜÇÜK DIŞA AÇIK EKONOMİLERDE MAKRO FİNANSAL ŞOKLAR VE PARA POLİTİKALARININ ETKİNLİĞİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Dışa bağlılıkları giderek artan yükselen ekonomilerin, dış kaynaklı şokların etkilerine daha açık hale geldikleri görülmektedir. Bu tür şoklar genellikle finansal varlık ve emtia fiyatlarındaki artışlardan ileri gelir ve hassas ekonomik dengeleri olan küçük dışa açık ekonomileri derinden sarsabilirler. Yerel finans sisteminde çalkantılar, çıktı düzeyinde düşüşler, enflasyon ve işsizlik oranlarının artması gibi etkiler gözlenebilir. Merkez bankaları şoklara karşı genellikle faiz oranları ile müdahale etmektedir. Dolayısıyla dış kaynaklı makro ekonomik ve finansal şoklara karşı merkez bankası müdahalelerinin etkinliği giderek daha fazla tartışılmaya başlanmıştır. Bu çalışmada basit bir Yeni Keynesyen model üzerinden küçük dışa açık bir ekonomi olan Türkiye’de şoklara karşı para politikalarının etkinliği sorgulanmaktadır. Clarida vd. (1999) modeli finansal istikrarı içerecek şekilde geliştirilmiş ve temel varsayımları bir SVAR modeli üzerinden sınanmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular makro ekonomik ve finansal şokların güçlü karşılıklı etkileşimleri olduğunu göstermektedir. Finansal sistemin istikrarının en az fiyat istikrarı kadar önemli olduğu, merkez bankasının faiz oranları yoluyla çıktı düzeyi, enflasyon ve kredi açığını yönlendirebileceği belirlenmiştir. Ancak faiz oranlarının çıktı üzerindeki etkilerinin diğer değişkenlere oranla daha kısa sürdüğü saptanmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Dış Şoklar, Parasal ve Finansal İstikrar, SVAR Modelleri

Macro Financial Shocks and Efficiency of Monetary Policies in Small Open Economies: The Case of Turkey

It is seen that the emerging economies that the increasing their external dependency become more open to the effects of external shocks. Such shocks are often caused by increases in the financial assets and commodity prices and deeply affect the small open economies with sensitive economic balances. Fluctuations in the local financial system, declines in output levels, increases in inflation and unemployment rates may be observed. Central banks often interfere with interest rates against shocks. Therefore, the effectiveness of central bank interventions against external macroeconomic and financial shocks has been increasingly discussed. In this study, the effectiveness of monetary policy against to external shocks in Turkey which is a small open economy will be questioned based on a simple New Keynesian model. Clarida et al. (1999) model was developed to include financial stability and its basic assumptions were tested on a SVAR model. The findings show that macroeconomic and financial shocks have strong interactions. It is determined that the stability of the financial system is important at least as price stability, and that the central bank can direct output, inflation and credit deficit through interest rates. However, the effects of interest rates on output were found to be shorter than other variables.

Keywords:

External Shocks, Monetary and Financial Stability, SVAR Models,

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