UZUN DÖNEMDE İŞÇİ DÖVİZ HAVALELERİNİN İHRACAT ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: HOLLANDA HASTALIĞI GEÇERLİ Mİ?

Hollanda hastalığı kabaca, dövizin bollaşması sonucunda yerel para biriminin değerlenip ihracatta rekabeti olumsuz etkilemesi şeklinde tanımlanabilir. Bu çalışmada, 2017 baz yılında işçi döviz havalelerinin GSYİH’ ya oranı en yüksek 10 ülkeden 6’sında işçidöviz havalelerinin ihracat üzerindeki uzun dönemli etkisi panel eş-bütünleşme testleri ile incelenmiş, işçi döviz havalelerinin Hollanda Hastalığı durumuna yol açıp açmadığı araştırılmıştır. Sonuç olarak, işçi döviz havaleleri ile ihracat serileri eş-bütünleşik bulunmuştur. PDOLS yöntemiyle elde edilen uzun dönem işçi döviz havaleleri katsayısı negatif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlıdır. Dolayısıyla işçi döviz havaleleri ihracatı azaltmaktadır. Bu durumda işçi döviz havalelerinin uzun dönemde dış ülkelerle rekabet gücünü azaltmakta olduğu söylenebilir. Bir başka ifadeyle, Hollanda Hastalığı durumu söz konusudur. Bu durum, işçi döviz havalelerinin sadece hane halkı refahını artırdığını, toplam yatırımların artmasını sağlayacak şekilde sermaye stokuna dönüşmediğini göstermektedir. Politikacılar, işçi döviz havalelerinin yatırımlara daha fazla dönüşmesini sağlayarak daha fazla ihracat rakamlarına ulaşabilirler. Bundan sonraki çalışmalarda, farklı dönemler ele alınabileceği gibi ele alınan ülke sayısı da artırılabilir. Coğrafi olarak bakıldığında bu ülkeler birbirine komşu ülkeler ise mekânsal panel veri yöntemleri ile analizler yapılabilir.

THE EFFECT OF WORKERS’ REMITTANCES ON EXPORT IN THE LONG-TERM: IS THE DUTCH DISEASE VALID?

The Dutch Disease can be roughly defined as the negative response of competition in exports as a result of local currency appreciation due to the abundance of foreign currency .In this study, the long-run relationship of the effects of the workers’ remittances on export for 6 out of 10 countries which have the highest rate of remittances to GDP for base year 2017 is analyzed via panel co-integration tests, and investigated whether the remittances cause the Dutch Disease. Consequently, it is found that workers’ remittances and export series are co-integrated. The long-term workers’ remittancescoefficientobtainedbyPDOLSmethodisnegativeandstatisticallysignificant. Therefore, workers’ remittances decrease exports. In this case, it can be said that workers’ remittances adversely affect competitiveness with the foreign countries in the long term. In the other words, there is the Dutch Disease situation. This result shows that workers’ remittances only increase household welfare, do not transform to capital stock that led to increase in aggregate investments. Politicians can reach more export figures by transforming remittances to further investments. For the further studies, different periods can be examined or the number of countries investigated could be increased. Moreover, spatial panel data methods can be applied if the countries investigated are neighbor geographically.

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