Türkiye’de Konut Fiyatlarının Makroekonomik Belirleyicileri

Bu çalışmada, 2010-2020 dönemi için Türkiye ekonomisinde konut fiyatları ile makroekonomik belirleyicileri arasındaki ilişkiyi inceliyoruz. Çalışmanın ampirik kısmında, ARDL eş bütünleşme sınır testi ve Granger Nedensellik test prosedürleri kullanılmaktadır. Ampirik sonuçlar, konut faiz oranları ile konut fiyatları arasında anlamlı bir negatif ilişki olduğunu göstermiştir. Ayrıca ABD dolarının Türk Lirası karşısında değer kazanmasının ve istihdam düzeyindeki artışın konut fiyatlarını artırıcı yönde etkilediği gözlemlenmiştir. Araştırmamız sonucunda ülkeye özgü farklılıkların, makroekonomik belirleyicilerin konut fiyatlarındaki değişimi açıklamadaki gücünü etkilediği sonucuna ulaştık.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Konut fiyatları, Makroekonomik Belirleyiciler, Türkiye, Granger Nedensellik Testi, ARDL Sınır Testi

The Macroeconomic Determinants of The Housing Prices in Turkey

In this study, we examine the relationship between housing prices and its macroeconomic determinants in the Turkish economy over the period 2010-2020. The ARDL bounds testing to cointegration and Granger Causality test procedures are employed in the empirical part of the study. The empirical results show that there is a significant negative relationship between housing interest rates and housing prices. Besides, it was observed that the appreciation of the US dollar against the Turkish Lira and the increase in the employment level had an increasing effect on housing prices. As a result of our research, we conclude that country-specific facts affect the macroeconomic determinants’ ability to explain the changes in housing prices.

Keywords:

Housing prices, Macroeconomic determinants Turkey, ARDL Bounds Testing, Granger Causality Test, Granger Causality Test, ,

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