Türkiye’nin Demiryolu Yük Taşımacılığı Talebinin Zaman Serisi Analizi ile Tahmini

Taşıma modları içinde yatırım maliyeti yüksek olmasına rağmen kütlesel taşımada navlun maliyeti oldukça düşük olan mod demiryolu taşımacılığıdır. Demiryolunda taşınacak yük miktarının tahmin edilmesi etkin planlama yapılmasını sağlar. Bu çalışma Türkiye’de demiryolu yük taşımacılığına oluşacak talep modeli 1978-2018 arasındaki yıllık zaman serisi verilerini kullanarak analiz edilmiştir. Johansen eşbütünleşme analizi ve varyans hata düzeltme modeli ile tahminin belirleyicilerinin kısa ve uzun dönem esneklikleri tahmin edilmiştir. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre demiryolu yük talebinin en önemli belirleyicisi navlun oranı olmuştur. Demiryolu yük talebinin navlun oranına göre uzun dönem ve kısa dönem esneklikleri - 0,181 ve -0,184 ile çok yakındır. Demiryolu yükü talebinin uzun dönemli dış ticaret hacmi esnekliği anlamlı ve pozitiftir, yani ticaret hacmi arttıkça demiryoluna oluşacak yük talebi artacaktır. Fakat demiryolu yükü talebinin uzun dönemli Gayrisafi Katma Değer ve Yakıt Fiyatı esneklikleri anlamlı ve negatiftir. Yani bu değişkenlerdeki artık demiryolu yük talebini azaltacaktır. Hata düzeltme modeline göre demiryolu yük talebindeki herhangi bir son dönem sapmasının 55%’i bir yıl içinde düzeltilmekte ve uzun dönem denge ilişkisi eski haline gelebilmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Demiryolu Yük Taşımacılığı Talebi, , VECM, , Johansen Eşbütünleşme., GVA

Forecasting of Turkey’s Demand for Railway Freight Transportation with Time Series Analysis

Among the transportation modes,it is the type of railway transportation that has a very low freight cost in mass transportation, although the investment cost is high. Estimating the amount of load to be carried on the rail provides effective planning for managers. This study was analyzed using annual time series data between 1978-2018 will consist of rail freight demand in Turkey. The short and long term flexibility of the estimation was estimated with the Johansen cointegration analysis and error correction model. According to the results obtained, the most important determinant of the rail freight demand was the freight rate. According to the freight rate of the rail freight demand, the longterm and short-term elasticities are almost the same as - 0.181 and -0.184. The long-term trade volume flexibility of the demand for rail freight is meaningful and positive, meaning that the demand for the rail will increase as the trade volume increases. However, the long-term Gross Value Added and Fuel Price elasticities of the demand for the railway load are significant and negative. In other words, these variables will now reduce the demand for rail freight. According to the error correction model, 55% of any last-term deviation in the rail freight demand is corrected within a year and the long-term balance relationship can be restored..

Keywords:

Rail Freight Transport Demand, VECM, Johansen Co-integration.,

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