TÜRKİYE VE ALMANYA ARASINDAKİ DIŞ TİCARET DENGESİNİN SINIR TESTİ YAKLAŞIMIYLA İNCELENMESİ

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye ve Almanya arasındaki ikili dış ticaret dengesini incelemektir.  Bu amaçla eşbütünleşme testi olarak son yıllarda geliştirilen Gecikmesi Dağıtılmış Otoregresif (ARDL) modele dayanan sınır testi yaklaşımı kullanılmıştır. Çalışma, 2002-2012 dönemine ilişkin aylık verileri içermektedir. Tahmin sonuçlarına göre Türk Lirasındaki reel değer kaybının kısa ve uzun dönemde Türkiye’nin Almanya ile olan dış ticaret dengesi üzerinde pozitif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir etkisinin olduğu görülmüştür. Ayrıca ampirik sonuçlar her iki ülkenin gelirini temsilen alınan sanayi üretim endeksinin, dış ticaret dengesi üzerinde beklentilere uygun etkiye sahip olduğunu göstermektedir.

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The aim of this paper is to analyse the bilateral trade balance between Turkey and Germany. For this purpose, recently developed Bounds test cointegration approach based on Autoregressive Distributed Lag model is conducted by using monthly data over the period from 2002 to 2012. According to the estimation results, the real depreciation of the Turkish Lira have a statistically significant positive impact on Turkey’s trade balance with Germany in the short and long run. Inaddition, the empirical results indicate that industrial production indexes taken as a proxy for income of two countries have the expected effects on the trade balance

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