Türk ekonomisinde para ikamesinin belirleyicilerinin sınır testi yaklaşımı ile eş-bütünleşme analizi

Bu çalışma ticarî dışa açıklık, beklenen döviz kuru, beklenen enflasyon oranı ve Türkiye ile ABD arasındaki reel faiz oranları farkı ile para ikamesi arasındaki ilişkiyi analiz etmektedir. Belirtilen değişkenlerin yanı sıra özellikle merkez bankasının brüt döviz rezervleri analiz edilmiştir. Çalışmada 1988 ve 2009 yılları arasında Türk ekonomisi için sınır testi yaklaşımı kullanılmıştır. Çalışmanın bulguları para ikamesi ile tüm açıklayıcı değişkenler arasında pozitif ilişki olduğunu göstermektedir. Ticarî dışa açıklık dışında, tüm açıklayıcı değişkenlerin uzun dönemde %10 önem düzeyinde anlamlı olduğu ortaya çıkmıştır. Bu çalışmanın temel politika sonucu ise, merkez bankasının brüt döviz rezervlerinin para ikamesinin önlenmesinde önem arz etmesidir.

The determinants of currency substitution in turkish economy: a bound testing approach to cointegration

This paper analyzes the relationships between currency substitution, trade openness, expected real exchange rate, expected inflation rates and interest rate differentials between Turkey and USA. It also especially examines central bank's gross foreign exchange reserves in the analysis. The bound test approach is applied in the analysis between 1988 and 2009 for Turkish economy. The findings show that, in the long run, all the variables have positive impact on currency substitution. The analysis indicates that all variables are significant at the 10 percent level and with the expected sign, except for trade openness. The main policy implication that follows from this study is that central bank's gross foreign exchange reserves are important to prevent currency substitution

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