SERA GAZI SALIMININ AZALTIMINDA ALTERNATİF POLİTİKALARIN EKONOMİK MALİYETLERİNİN İNCELENMESİ: TÜRKİYE İÇİN GENEL DENGE ANALİZİ

Sanayileşme süreci ile birlikte 1870’li yıllardan itibaren, fosil yakıtlarının yoğun bir şekilde kullanılmasıyla insanlık küresel ısınma ve iklim değişikliği sorunuyla karşı karşıya kalmıştır. Bu sorun gelişmişlik düzeyi ne olursa olsun dünya ülkelerinin tamamını etkilemektedir. Bu çalışmanın amacı; genel denge analizi yardımıyla, 2008 yılından Kyoto protokolü ile gündeme gelen küresel ısınmanın başlıca sebebi olan karbondioksit salımının kontrol altına alınabilmesi için uygulanan yöntemlerden olan emisyon ticaretinin Türkiye ekonomisi açısından ekonomik maliyetlerini analiz etmek ve geleceğe yönelik uygulanması gereken ekonomi politikaları için önerilerde bulunmaktır. Çalışmada öncelikle TÜİK tarafında sınıflandırılan 59 sektörlü en son yayınlanan 2002 Input-Output tablosu, emisyon yoğunluğu fazla olan sektörler baz alınarak toplulaştırılmış ve 10 sektöre indirgenmiştir. Bu sektörler baz alınarak kurulan Genel Denge Analizi sonuçları farklı emisyon kotaları ve uluslararası karbon fiyatı değişimleri senaryoları altında hesaplanmıştır. Genel Denge Analizi sonucunda; emisyon ticareti uygulamasının karbon vergisine göre GSYİH üzerindeki refah kaybının daha az olduğu bulgusu elde edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Genel Denge Modeli, Karbon Vergisi, Emisyon Ticareti, Türkiye

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Beginning in 1870s with the industrialization process humanity has been faced with the problem of global warming and climate changes by the intensive use of fossil fuels. This problem affects all countries in the world regardless of the development level. The aim of this study is to analyse the economic costs of emission trade which is one of the methods implemented to control the carbon dioxide emission that is the main reason of global warming that came to order with Kyoto Protocol in 2008 in terms of Turkish economy and make recommendations for the future economy policies that have to be implemented with the help of general equilibrium analysis. Firstly in the study the most recently published 2002 Input-Output table with 59 sectors categorized by Turkish Statistics Institution (TSI) was consolidated by basing upon the sectors with higher emission intensity and it was reduced to 10 sectors. General equilibrium analysis results were calculated under the different emission quotas and the scenarios of international carbon price changes. As a result of general equilibrium analysis, it was found the evidence that the welfare loss of the practice of emission trade on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was lower than the carbon tax

Keywords:

General Equilibrium Model, Carbon Tax, Emission Trade, Turkey,

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