PETROL FİYATLARININ DIŞ TİCARET AÇIĞI ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Bu çalışmada Türkiye’nin 1992:01-2012:04 dönemine ait aylık veriler kullanılarak reel petrol fiyatları ile dış ticaret dengesi arasındaki ilişki, doğrusal olmayan eşbütünleşme, doğrusal olmayan ve frekans alanı Granger tipi nedensellik analizleri kullanılarak incelenmiştir. Analizler sonucunda reel petrol fiyatından dış ticaret açığına tek yönlü nedenselliğin olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Fakat nedensellik ilişkisi sadece orta vadede geçerlidir. Buna göre Türkiye’de orta vadede petrol fiyatlarındaki oynaklıklar dış ticaret açıklarının oluşmasında etkili iken, uzun vadede dış ticaret açıkları üzerindeki etkisi kaybolmaktadır.

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In this study, we investigate the relationship between real oil price and foreign trade deficit in Turkey by using monthly data belonging 1992M1-2012M4 period. In this regard, we employ nonlinear cointegration, nonlinear causality and frequency domain Granger type causality analysis methods. Empirical findings imply that there is a uni-directional nonlinear causality running from real oil price to foreign trade balance. But the causation linkage exists on the medium-term. In the light of the findings, while the volatility in oil price affects foreign trade balance of Turkey, the effect disappears on the long run

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