Pazar büyüklüğü etkisi ve endüstri içi ticaret ilişkisi: OECD ülkeleri için sektörel panel veri analizi

Endüstri İçi Ticaret (EİT), aynı sektörde üretilen ürünlerin eşanlı olarak ithalat ve ihracatı olarak tanımlanmaktadır. Pazar Büyüklüğü Etkisi(PBE) ise, bir ülkenin herhangi bir malda dünya üretimindeki payı ile aynı mal için o ülkenin talebi arasındaki oransal ilişki olarak ifade edilmektedir. Ölçeğe göre artan getiri, aksak rekabet piyasaları ve taşıma maliyetlerinin varlığını dikkate aldığımızda, PBE, herhangi bir mala yönelik olarak yurt içi talebi dünya ortalamasının üstünde olan bir ülkenin aynı malda dünya üretiminde de ortalamanın üzerinde üretim payı olması şeklinde bir sonuç doğurmaktadır. Krugman (1980) ile uluslararası ticaretin bileşenlerinin belirlenmesine yönelik olarak ortaya atılan PBE tezinin günümüze kadar birçok ampirik çalışmada sınandığı görülmüştür. Ancak EİT ve PBE’yi birlikte inceleyen çalışmaya rastlanmamıştır. Bu çalışmaya bizi motive eden unsur pazar büyüklüğü, ölçeğe göre artan getiri ve taşıma maliyetleri ile ilişkisi olan EİT’nin belirleyicilerinden biri olabileceği düşüncesidir. Çalışmanın amacı PBE’nin, EİT’nin belirleyicilerinden birisi olup olmadığının ortaya konulmasıdır. Bu bağlamda 34 OECD ülkesi, 2000-2016 yılları imalat sanayisi dış ticaret verileri ve ülke verileri kullanılarak dinamik panel veri analizi yapılmıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre PBE’yi temsilen modele dâhil ettiğimiz değişkenlerin (üretim ölçeği, taşıma maliyetleri) katsayıları anlamlı çıkmış ve beklentilerimize uygun şekilde PBE’nin EİT’ye katkıda bulunan bir değişken olduğu sonucuna varılmıştır. Bu çalışmanın en önemli katkısı PBE’ye EİT açısından yeni bir bakış açısı kazandırılmış olmasıdır. Elde edilen sonuçların teorik katkısının yanı sıra ülkelerin dış ticaret bileşenlerine yönelik politik uygulara da ışık tutabileceği düşünülmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Endüstri İçi Ticaret, Yeni Dış Ticaret Teorisi, Pazar Büyüklüğü Etkisi, Grubel-Lloyd Endeksi, Panel GMM

Market size effect and relationship between industrial trade: Sectoral panel data analysis for OECD countries

Intra-Industry Trade (IIT) is defined as the simultaneous import and export of products produced in the same sector. Home Market Effect (HME) is defined as the proportional relationship between the share of a country in world production in any good and the demand of that country for the same good. When we consider the increasing returns to scale, the existence of imperfect competition markets and transportation costs, HME has a result that a country whose domestic demand is above the world average for any commodity has an above average production share in the same production in the world. Since the Krugman (1980), it has been seen that the HME thesis, which was put forward to determine the components of international trade, has been tested in many empirical studies. However, no study examining the effect of IIT and HME was found. What motivates us for this study is the idea that it may be one of the determinants of IIT, which is associated with market size, increasing returns to scale and transport costs. The aim of the study is to determine whether the effect of market size is one of the determinants of IIT. In this context, dynamic panel data analysis was performed by using the data of foreign trade data and country data of manufacturing industry of 34 OECD countries between 2000-2016. According to the results obtained, the coefficients of the variables (production scale, transportation costs) that we included in the model representing the HME were significant and it was concluded that the HME was a variable contributing to IIT in accordance with our expectations. The most important contribution of this study is to provide a new perspective on the effect of market size in terms of IIT. In addition to the theoretical contribution of the results obtained, it is thought that countries can shed light on the political practices related to foreign trade components.

Keywords:

Intra-Industry Trade, New Trade Theory, Market Size Effect, Grubel-Lloyd Index, Panel GMM,

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