Sultan KUZU YILDIRIM

İNŞAAT SEKTÖRÜNDEKİ BÜYÜME İLE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİ SÜRDÜRÜLEBİLİR Mİ?

Bu çalışmada gelişmekte olan ülkeler arasında yer alan Türkiye’de inşaat sektöründeki büyüme ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki incelenmiştir. 2005/Q1 ve 2017/Q4 dönemleri arasındaki Toplam İnşaat Ciro Endeksi (CTU) ve Gayri Safi Yurt İçi Hasıla (GSYİH) verilerine Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu resmi web sayfasından ulaşılmıştır. İncelenen dönemde inşaat sektöründe ve ekonomide yaşanan krizlerden dolayı yapısal kırılmalar da göz önüne alınmıştır. Değişkenlerin durağanlığının saptanmasında klasik birim kök testlerinin yanı sıra tek ve iki kırılmalı Lee-Strazicich (LS) birim kök testleri kullanılmıştır. Anlamlı kırılmaların belirlendiği bu periyotta değişkenler arasındaki uzun dönem ilişki Hatemi-J iki kırılmalı eşbütünleşme analizi ile araştırılmıştır. Buna göre 2009/Q4 ve 2013/Q3 dönemlerindeki iki anlamlı kırılma göz önüne alındığında inşaat sektöründeki büyüme ile ekonomik büyüme arasında uzun dönemde ilişki olduğu saptanmıştır. Ardından belirlenen bu ilişkinin sürdürülebilir olup olmadığını belirlemek için Wald katsayı testi yapılmıştır.

THE CONSTRUCTION SECTOR AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: A SUSTAINABLE RELATIONSHIP?

In this study, the relationship between growth in the construction sector and economic growth inTurkey which is one of the developing countries was examined. Total Construction Turnover Index andGross Domestic Product data between 2005/Q1 and 2017/Q4 periods were accessed from the officialwebsite of the Turkish Statistical Institute. Structural breaks were also taken into consideration due tothe crises encountered in the construction sector and economy in the period under review. In order todetermine the stationarity of the variables, one and two-break Lee-Strazicich unit root tests were usedin addition to the conventional unit root tests. In this period, where significant breaks were determined,the long-run relationship between the variables was investigated by Hatemi-J two unknown structuralbreaks cointegration analysis. According to this, considering two significant breaks in the periods of2009/Q4 and 2013/Q3, a long-run relationship was determined between growth in the constructionsector and economic growth. Then, the Wald coefficient test was performed to identify whether thisdetermined relationship was sustainable.

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