Yüksek Hava Kirliliği Yaşanan Ülkelerde Doğumda Yaşam Beklentisi ve Çevresel Bozulma Bağlantısı

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Dünya Hava Kalitesi Raporu’nda (2021) tehlikeli, çok sağlıksız ve sağlıksız hava kirliliği yaşayan ülke kategorilerinde yer alan toplam 32 ülkenin 2000-2019 yılları arasındaki PM2.5 hava kirliliği, kamu sağlık harcamaları, doğurganlık ve ölüm oranlarının doğumda yaşam beklentisi üzerindeki etkilerinin panel kantil regresyon modeli ile incelenmesidir. Amaç doğrultusunda öncelikle korelasyon analizi, çoklu doğrusal bağlantı, normallik sınamaları ve Hausman testi metodolojileri takip edilmektedir. Ardılı 10th-90th kantil aralığı için panel kantil regresyon analizi yapılmakta, bulgular heterojenlik varsayımının doğrulandığı durum için robust standart hatalarla tahmin edilerek yorumlanmaktadır. Robust standart hatalara sahip tahmin sonuçlarında, model içerisindeki tüm değişkenlerin %5 anlam seviyesinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı olduğuna ulaşılmaktadır. Sonuçlara göre, PM2.5 hava kirliliğinde, doğurganlık ve ölüm oranlarında meydana gelen %1’lik bir artış doğumda yaşam beklentisini, sırasıyla, ~%0.02, ~%0.17 ve ~%0.09 oranlarında azaltmakta, sağlık harcamalarında meydana gelen %1’lik bir artış ise doğumda yaşam beklentisini ~%0.04 oranında artırmaktadır. Bu bağlamda doğumda yaşam beklentisini en fazla etkileyen değişkenin doğurganlık oranı, en az etkileyen değişkenin ise PM2.5 hava kirliliği olduğu görülmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Doğumda Yaşam Beklentisi, PM2.5 Hava Kirliliği, Panel Kantil Regresyon Modeli

Life Expectancy at Birth and Environmental Degradation Link in Countries with High Air Pollution

The aim of this study is to examine the effects of PM2.5 air pollution, public health expenditures, fertility and mortality rates on life expectancy at birth between 2000-2019 in a total of 32 countries, which are in the categories of countries with hazardous, very unhealthy and unhealthy air pollution in the World Air Quality Report (2021), using a panel quantile regression model. Correlation analysis, multicollinearity, normality tests and Hausman test methodologies are followed in line with the aim. Panel quantile regression analysis is performed for the consecutive 10th-90th quantile range, and the findings are interpreted by estimating with robust standard errors for the case where the heterogeneity assumption is confirmed. In the estimation results with robust standard errors, it is reached that all variables in the model are statistically significant at 1% significance level. According to the results, a 5% increase in PM2.5 air pollution, fertility and mortality rates decreases life expectancy at birth by ~0.02%, ~0.17% and ~0.09%, respectively, while a 1% increase in health expenditures increases life expectancy at birth by ~0.04%. In this context, it is seen that the variable that affects life expectancy at birth the most is the fertility rate, and the variable that affects the least is PM2.5 air pollution.

Keywords:

Life Expectancy at Birth, PM2.5 Air Pollution, Panel Quantile Regression Model,

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