Kayıt Dışı Ekonomi Finansal Sektörün Gelişimini Kısıtlıyor mu?

Kayıt dışı ekonomi, hem gelişmiş hem de gelişmekte olan ülkelerde yaygın bir özelliktir ve makroekonomik performans üzerinde ciddi etkileri vardır. Mevcut literatür esas olarak bir ekonomideki kayıt dışı ekonominin boyutu ve belirleyicisi ile ekonomik büyüme, mali gelir ve bütçe performansı üzerindeki etkisine odaklanmaktadır. Kayıt dışı finans alanında ise kayıt dışı ekonomi ve finansal gelişme arasındaki etkileşim üzerine sınırlı sayıda çalışma yapılmıştır. Oysaki literatürde kayıt dışı ekonominin, organize finans sektörünün gelişimini olumlu ya da olumsuz etkileyebileceğine dair fikir birliğine varılamamıştır. Olumsuz görüşler; resmi finans sektörüne erişimi olmayan ekonomik ajanların, resmi olmayan finansal fırsatlardan yararlanmayı tercih edebilme fikrine dayanmaktadır. Bu durum bir yandan organize olmayan finansal piyasaların genişlemesine, diğer yandan organize finans sektörünün daralmasına yol açmaktadır. Olumlu görüşler ise kayıt dışı ekonominin organize finans sektörü üzerindeki baskıyı azaltacağı düşüncesinden kaynaklanmaktadır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, 18 Üst-Orta Gelirli ülkeler için kayıt dışı ekonominin, finansal sektörün gelişimi üzerindeki etkisini incelemektir. Bu nedenle çalışmada 1991-2017 yılları arası verileri, Panel Hata Düzeltme modellerinden biri olan Ortak İlişkili Etkiler Ortalama Grup (CCEMG) tahmincisi kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Sonucunda ise kayıt dışı ekonominin finansal sektör gelişimi üzerindeki etkisinin uzun dönemde negatif olduğu görülmüştür.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Kayıt Dışı Ekonomi, Panel Veri Analizi, Finansal Sektör

Does Shadow Economy Restrain Financial Sector Development?

The shadow economy is a common feature in both developed and developing countries and has serious implications for macroeconomic performance. The current literature mainly focuses on the size and determinant of the shadow economy in an economy and its impact on economic growth, fiscal income and budget performance. On the other hand, a limited number of studies had conducted on the interaction between the shadow economy and financial development as the field of shadow finance. However, there is no consensus in the literature that the shadow economy could affect the development of the organized finance sector positively or negatively. Negative opinion is generally based on the idea that economic agents without access to the shadow financial sector may prefer to take advantage of shadow financial opportunities. This situation causes the expansion of unorganized financial markets on the one hand and the contraction of the organized finance sector on the other. Despite the negative opinion, the positive opinion stems from the thought that the shadow economy will reduce the pressure on the organized finance sector. The aim of this study is to examine the impact of the shadow economy on the development of the financial sector for 18 Upper-Middle Income countries. For this reason, the data between 1991 and 2017 were analyzed using the Common Associated Effects Mean Group (CCEMG) estimator, which is one of the Panel Error Correction models. As a result, it is seen that the effect of the informal economy on financial sector development is negative in the long run.

Keywords:

Shadow Economy, Panel Data Analysis, Financial Sector.,

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