Şencan FELEK, Cihat KARADEMİR, Reşat CEYLAN

Bitcoin ile Karbon Emisyonu İlişkisi: Doğrusal Olmayan Eşbütünleşme Analizi

Bu çalışmada, 2017M1-2022M1 dönemleri arasındaki veriler kullanılarak Bitcoin (BTC) ile Karbon Emisyonu (CO2) arasındaki ilişki incelenmiştir. Son zamanlarda yapılan çalışmalara istinaden kripto para ve enerji piyasalarının spekülatif ve kırılgan yapıya sahip olduğu ve bundan dolayı değişkenlerin doğrusal olmayan bir forma sahip olabileceği konusuna dikkat çekildiği gözlenmektedir. Dolayısıyla bu bilgiler çerçevesinde çalışmada öncelikle Luukkonen vd. (1988), Harvey vd. (2008) doğrusallık testi ve Kapetanios vd. (2003) doğrusal olmayan birim kök testi ile değişkenlerin doğrusallık sınaması yapılmaktadır. Akabinde değişkenlerin doğrusal olmayan forma sahip olduğu tespit edildiği için çalışmada Kapetanios vd. (2006) Doğrusal Olmayan Eşbütünleşme analizi kullanılmaktadır. Kapetanios vd. (2006) testi bulgularına göre BTC ile CO2 arasında uzun dönemde doğrusal olmayan bir eşbütünleşme ilişkisi olduğu tespit edilmektedir. Bu durum BTC ile CO2 arasındaki ilişkinin uzun dönemde dengeye doğrusal olmayan bir şekilde yakınsadığı sonucunu göstermektedir. Değişkenler arasında doğrusal olmayan eşbütünleşme ilişkisini tespit ettikten sonra bu ilişkinin yönünü belirlemek amacıyla yapılan Granger nedensellik testi sonucuna göre ise Bitcoin’den Karbon Emisyonuna doğru tek yönlü nedensellik olduğu tespit edilmektedir. Bu bulgu, BTC üretiminde kullanılan enerjinin çevre dostu kaynaklardan elde edilmesine yönelik politikaların benimsenmesi gerektiği biçiminde yorumlanabilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Bitcoin, Karbon Emisyonu, Granger Nedensellik Testi., Doğrusallık Testleri, Doğrusal Olmayan Eşbütünleşme Analizi, Granger Nedensellik Testi

The Relationship Between Bitcoin and Carbon Emissions: Nonlinear Cointegration Analysis

In this study, the relationship between Bitcoin (BTC) and Carbon Emission (CO2) was examined using the data between the periods 2017M1-2022M1. Based on recent studies, it is observed that crypto money and energy markets have a speculative and fragile structure, and therefore the variables may have a non-linear form. Therefore, within the framework of this information, the linearity test of the variables is carried out primarily by Luukkonen et al..(1988), Harvey et al..(2008) linearity test, and KSS (2003) nonlinear unit root test. Afterwards, KSS (2006) Nonlinear Co-integration analysis is used in the study since it is determined that the variables have a nonlinear form. According to the KSS (2006) test findings, it is determined that there is a nonlinear cointegration relationship between BTC and CO2 in the long run. This shows that the relationship between BTC and CO2 converges non-linearly to the long-run equilibrium. According to the result of the Granger causality test performed to determine the direction of this relationship after detecting the nonlinear cointegration relationship between its variables, it is determined that there is one-way causality from Bitcoin to Carbon Emission. This finding can be interpreted as policies towards obtaining the energy used in BTC production from environmentally friendly sources should be adopted.

Keywords:

Bitcoin, Carbon Emissions, Linearity Tests, Nonlinear Cointegration Analysis, Granger Causality Test,

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