Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırım, Ticari Açıklık ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki: Seçilmiş Ülkeler ve Türkiye Örneği

Küreselleşme eğiliminin giderek derinlik kazanması özellikle gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkelerde doğrudan yabancı yatırım, ticari açıklık ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkinin önemini daha da artırmış; dolayısıyla bu ilişki uluslararası ekonominin en önemli konularından birisi haline gelmiştir. Hem doğrudan yabancı yatırımın hem de ticari açıklığın büyümeyi açıklamada rolü, ekonomik büyüme sürecinde çok önemli bir faktör olarak geniş çapta kabul görmüştür. Bu bağlamda çalışmanın amacı seçilmiş ülkeler (Güney Afrika, Hindistan, Kolombiya, Meksika) ve Türkiye’de doğrudan yabancı yatırım, ticari açıklık ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemektir. Diğer bir ifadeyle seçilen ülkeler için doğrudan yabancı yatırımların ve uluslararası ticaretin ülkelerin ekonomik büyümeye olumlu katkı sağlayıp sağlamadıklarını araştırmaktır. Seçilen ülkeler gelişmekte olan ülke konumunda olmasından ve dış ticaret ile doğrudan yabancı yatırımlara daha açık oldukları için tercih edilmiştir. Bu çalışma, 1998-2019 dönemini kapsamaktadır. Çalışmaya ait veriler Worldbank sitesinden edinilmiştir. 1998-2019 yılları kapsamında ilişkileri araştırmak adına birim kök için Levin,Lin ve Chu (LLC) testi, Panel Granger Nedensellik analizi ve Westerlund Panel eşbütünleşme testi kullanılmıştır. Çalışma sonucunda doğrudan yabancı yatırımların ve uluslararası ticaretin gerçekten de seçilen ülkeler için büyümenin önemli belirleyicileri olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Çalışmada gayri safi yurtiçi hasıla ve doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar arasında çift yönlü bir nedensellik bulunmuştur. Gayri safi yurtiçi hasıla aynı zamanda ticari açıklığın da Granger nedeni olarak tespit edilmiştir. Yapılan eşbütünleşme analizi ile elde edilen bulguların uzun dönemde de geçerli olduğu söylenebilir. Çalışma sonucu çıkan öneri, seçilen ülkelerdeki politika yapıcılarının, sürdürülebilir bir yüksek ekonomik büyüme elde etmek istiyorlarsa dış ticaretlerini ve doğrudan yabancı yatırımların girişlerini teşvik etmek için ekonomilerini liberalleştirmeleri, ticaret engellerini azaltmaları ya da kaldırmalarının gerekli olduğudur.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar, Ticari Açıklık, Ekonomik Büyüme, Uluslararası Ticaret

The Relationships between Foreign Direct Investment, Trade Openness, and Economic Growth: The Case of Selected Countries and Turkey

Globalization has highlighted the importance of the relationships between foreign direct investment (FDI), trade openness, and economic growth, especially in developed and developing countries; therefore, this is one of the most important issues in the international economy. FDI and trade openness are widely recognized as crucial factors in the process of economic growth. In this context, the aim of the current study is to examine the relationships between FDI, trade openness, and economic growth in selected countries (i.e., South Africa, India, Colombia, and Mexico) and Turkey. Particularly, this study investigates whether FDI and international trade contributed positively to the economic growth of the selected countries over the period 1998–2019. The countries examined in this study were selected because they are developing countries; therefore, especially open to foreign trade and FDI. The data of the study were obtained from the World Bank website. The Levin, Lin, and Chu test, panel Granger causality analysis, and Westerlund panel cointegration test were employed for unit root testing to investigate the relations of interest. Results indicated that FDI and international trade are indeed important determinants of growth in the selected countries. A two-way causality was found between gross domestic product (GDP) and FDI, and GDP was identified as a Granger cause of trade openness. The findings obtained by cointegration analysis appear to be valid even in the long term. Policy makers in the selected countries may need to liberalize their economies and reduce or remove trade barriers to encourage foreign trade and FDI inflows if they aim to achieve strong and sustainable economic growth.

Keywords:

Foreign Direct Investment, Trade Openness, Economic Growth, International Trade,

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