Avrupa Ülkelerinde CO2 Emisyonu Yakınsamasının Fourier Koentegrasyon Testi ile Analizi

Bu çalışmada yakınsama hipotezi çerçevesinde Avrupa ülkeleri arasında CO2 emisyonunun yakınsayıp yakınsamadığı, Tsong vd. (2016) tarafından geliştirilen Fourier koentegresyon testi ile araştırılmıştır. Bu kapsamda 1965-2019 dönemi için Avusturya, Belçika, Bulgaristan, Kıbrıs, Çekya, Danimarka, Finlandiya, Fransa, Almanya, Macaristan, İzlanda, İrlanda, İtalya, Lüksemburg, Hollanda, Norveç, Polonya, Portekiz, Romanya, Slovakya, İspanya, İsveç, İsviçre, Türkiye ve İngiltere ülkelerine ve Avrupa’nın ortalama CO2 emisyonuna ait yıllık veriler kullanılmıştır. Bu çalışmada yakınsama hipotezi kapsamında CO2 emisyonunun yakınsak olup olmadığının Fourier koentegrasyon yöntemi ile sınandığı literatürdeki ilk çalışmadır. Tsong vd. (2016) Fourier Koentegresyon testi sonuçlarına göre Avrupa ülkeleri olan Avusturya, Bulgaristan, Çekya, Danimarka, Finlandiya, Lüksemburg, Hollanda, Norveç, Romanya ve Türkiye ülkelerine ait kişi başı CO2 emisyonu ile Avrupa’nın ortalama kişi başı CO2 emisyonu arasında koentegre ilişki tespit edilmiştir. Bu sonuçlardan hareketle söz konusu ülkelerin kişi başı CO2 emisyonu ile Avrupa’nın ortalama kişi başı CO2 emisyonu arasında yakınsamanın varlığı belirlenmiştir. Buna karşın, Kıbrıs, Almanya, Macaristan, İrlanda, İtalya, Polonya, Portekiz, Slovakya, İspanya, İsviçre ve İngiltere’ye ait kişi başı CO2 emisyonu ile Avrupa’nın ortalama kişi başı CO2 emisyonu arasında koentegre ilişki tespit edilememiştir. Dolayısıyla söz konusu ülkeler ile Avrupa’nın ortalama kişi başı CO2 emisyonu arasında yakınsamaya rastlanılmamıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

CO2 Emisyonu, Yakınsama, Fourier Koentegrasyon

Analysis of The Conversion of CO2 Emissions in European Countries with the Fourier Cointegration Test

In this paper, whether the CO2 emissions converge among European countries or not has been inquired within the frame of convergence hypothesis under Fourier cointegration test which was developed by Tsong et al. (2016). In this context, annual data concerning Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey and England for the period of 1965-2019 were used with addition of annual data concerning Europe's average CO2 emissions. This paper is the first study in the literature to test whether the CO2 emission is convergent within the frame of the convergence hypothesis under the Fourier cointegration method. As stated in the results of the Tsong et al. (2016) Fourier Cointegration test, a cointegrated relationship was found between the per capita CO2 emissions of Austria, Bulgaria, Czechia, Denmark, Finland, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Romania, Turkey and the average per capita CO2 emission of Europe. Based on these results, it has been determined that there is a convergence between the per capita CO2 emissions of these countries and the average per capita CO2 emissions of Europe. On the other hand, no cointegrated relationship has been found between the per capita CO2 emissions of Cyprus, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Spain, Switzerland, UK and the average per capita CO2 emissions of Europe. Therefore, no convergence was determined between these countries and average per capita CO2 emissions of Europe.

Keywords:

CO2 Emission, Convergence, Fourier Cointegration,

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