ÜLKELERİN TİCARETİ KOLAYLAŞTIRMA ENDEKSİ İLE DIŞ TİCARET HACMİ ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİDE LOJİSTİK PERFORMANS ENDEKSİNİN ARACI ETKİSİ

Bu çalışmanın temel amacı, ticareti kolaylaştırma endeksi ile dış ticaret hacmi arasındaki ilişkide lojistik performans endeksinin aracı etkisinin tespit edilmesidir. Bu amaç doğrultusunda çalışmada, Dünya Ekonomik Formu tarafından yayınlanan ticareti kolaylaştırma endeksi, Dünya Bankası tarafından yayınlanan lojistik performans endeksi ve ülkelerin dış ticaret hacmi verileri kullanılarak basit aracılık modeli oluşturulmuştur. Çalışmada 94 ülkeye ait 2012, 2014 ve 2016 yılları verileri kullanılmış ve toplamda 282 örneklem derlenmiştir. Araştırmanın uygulama kısmında IBM SPSS 20 Paket Programı ile değişkenler arasındaki korelasyon katsayıları belirlenmiş, ardından Andrew F. Hayes tarafından geliştirilen, SPSS programına eklenen PROCESS 3.5 makrosu kullanılarak basit aracılık analizi yapılmıştır. Analizler sonucunda elde edilen bulgulara göre, lojistik performans endeksinin, ticareti kolaylaştırma endeksi ile dış ticaret hacmi arasındaki ilişkiye aracılık ettiği tespit edilmiştir. Aracılık etkisinin tam standardize etki büyüklüğü (K2) .5564 olarak tespit edilmiş, aracılık rolünün yüksek etki seviyesinde olduğu ortaya konulmuştur. Ayrıca dolaylı etki değeri (a.b) 6.670 olarak tespit edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Dış ticaret hacmi, Ticareti kolaylaştırma endeksi, Lojistik performans, PROCESS, Aracılık etkisi

The Mediating Effect of the Logistics Performance Index on the Relationship Between the Enabling Trade Index and Foreign Trade Volume of Countries

The main purpose of this study is to detect the mediation effect of the logistic performance index in the relationship between the enabling trade index and the volume of foreign trade. the simple mediation model was created by using the enabling trade index published by the World Economic Forum, the logistics performance index published by the World Bank, and the foreign trade volume data of the countries. The study used 94 countries’ data for the years 2016, 2014, and 2012, compiled 282 samples in total. In the application part of the study, the correlation coefficients between variables were determined with IBM SPSS 20 Package Program, and then a simple mediation analysis was performed using PROCESS 3.5 macro developed by Andrew F. Hayes. According to the findings obtained as a result of the analysis, it has been determined that the logistics performance index mediates the relationship between the enabling trade index and the foreign trade volume. The fully standardized effect size of the mediation effect (K2) was determined as .5564, and it was revealed that the mediating role was at a high effect level. In addition, the indirect effect value (a. b) is determined as 6.670.

Keywords:

Foreign trade volume, Enabling trade index, Logistic performance index, PROCESS, Mediation analysis,

PDF

___

Addey, K., Yeboah, O., & Shaik, S. (2017). Role of Trade Agreements and Enabling Trade Indexes on Trade Creation or Trade Diversion of US state Corn, Soybeans and Wheat (No. 1377-2016-109867), https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/252791/
Aktaş, İ. (2019). Analysis of The Effect of Logistics Performance Index and Economic Freedom Index on Global Facilitating Trade (Tez No. 556892) [Doktora tezi, Maltepe Üniversitesi]. Yükseköğretim Kurulu Ulusal Tez Merkezi.
Coto-Millán, P., Fernández, X. L., Pesquera, M. Á., & Agüeros, M. (2016). Impact of logistics on technical efficiency of world production (2007–2012). Networks and Spatial Economics, 16(4), 981-995. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11067-015-9306-6
Fritz, M. S., & MacKinnon, D. P. (2007). Required sample size to detect the mediated effect. Psychological science, 18(3), 233-239. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9280.2007.01882.x
Hayes, A. F. (2018). Introduction To Mediation, Moderation, And Conditional Process Analysis: A Regression-Based Approach (2. Ed.). The Guilford.
Hayes, A. F., & Rockwood, N. J. (2017). Regression-based statistical mediation and moderation analysis in clinical research: Observations, recommendations, and implementation. Behavior research and therapy, 98, 39-57. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.brat.2016.11.001
Host, A., Pavlic Skender, H., & Zaninovic, P. A. (2019). Trade Logistics – The Gravity Model Approach. Journal Zbornik Radova Ekonomskog Fakulteta U Rijeci / Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, 37(1), 327–342. https://doi.org/10.18045/zbefri.2019.1.327
Gurbuz, S. (2019). Mediator, regulatory and situational impact analysis in social sciences. Seçkin. L. Gurbuz, S., & Bayik, M. E. (2018, 2-3 November). The Modern Approach to Analysis of Mediation Models: Should the Baron and Kenny Method be Abandoned Now, 6. Proceedıngs of Organizational Behavior Congress, Turkey-Isparta.
MacKinnon, D. P., Lockwood, C. M., & Williams, J. (2004). Confidence limits for the indirect effect: Distribution of the product and resampling methods. Multivariate behavioral research, 39(1), 99-128, https://doi.org/10.1207/s15327906mbr3901_4
Preacher, K. J., & Selig, J. P. (2012). Advantages of Monte Carlo confidence intervals for indirect effects. Communication Methods and Measures, 6(2), 77-98, https://doi.org/10.1080/19312458.2012.679848
Yeo, A. D., & Deng, A. (2020). Logistics performance as a mediator of the relationship between trade facilitation and international trade: A mediation analysis. South African Journal of Economic and Management Sciences, 23(1), 1-11.
Zhao, X., & Zhang, F. (2020). An Empirical Study on the Impact of Trade Facilitation on China’s Export Trade, The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business, 11(9), 7–16, https://doi.org/10.13106/jidb.2020.vol11.no9.7
Williams, J., & MacKinnon, D. P. (2008). Resampling and distribution of the product methods for testing indirect effects in complex models. Structural equation modeling: a multidisciplinary journal, 15(1), 23-51, https://doi.org/10.1080/10705510701758166