Çiğdem TAKMA, Öznur İŞÇİ GÜNERİ, Yakut GEVREKÇİ

Investigation of Stillbirth Rate Using Logistic Regression Analysis in Holstein Friesian Calves

Lojistik regresyon analizi ikili veya çoklu kategorik yapıdaki bağımlı değişkenin bağımsız değişkenlerle neden sonuç ilişkisini belirlemede yararlanılan bir yöntemdir. Bu çalışmada buzağı ölü doğum oranları üzerine buzağı cinsiyeti, laktasyon sırası ve buzağılama yıl-mevsim etkileri ikili lojistik regresyon analizi ile incelenmiştir. Çalışmanın materyali ABD Ulusal Hayvan Yetiştiricileri Birliği'ne kayıtlı 2003-2005 yılları arasında yetiştirilen toplam 404460 adet tek doğan buzağının doğum kayıtlarıdır. Analiz sonuçlarına göre buzağı cinsiyeti, laktasyon sırası ve buzağılama yıl-mevsim değişkenlerinin buzağı ölü doğumlarına etkileri önemli (P0.12). Tüm değişkenler aynı modelde birlikte analiz edildiğinde, dişilerdeki ölü doğum oranının erkeklere göre 1.03 kat daha fazla olduğu belirlenmiştir. Ayrıca, laktasyon sırasının artmasıyla ölü doğum oranının azaldığı saptanmıştır. Diğer yandan, yaz doğumlarındaki ölü doğum oranı kış doğumlarından fazla bulunmuştur. Ülkemizde ölü doğum oranına ilişkin kayıtlar toplanmalı ve bu oran üzerine etkili olabilecek risk faktörleri belirlenmeli ve böylece buzağı ölümleri kontrol altına alınabilmelidir.

Siyah Alaca Buzağılarda Ölü Doğum Oranının Lojistik Regresyon Analizi İle İncelenmesi

Logistic regression analysis is a method to determine the reason-result relationship of independent variable(s) with dependent variable, which has binary or multiple categorical structures. In this study, sex of calf, parity and calving year-season effects on stillbirth were analyzed with binary logistic regression analysis. Study material was obtained from the USA National Association of Animal Breeders collected among 2003-2005 with a total of 404460 birth records of single born calves. According to the results, sex of calf, parity and calving year-season effects on stillbirth were found statistically significant (P0.12). When all variables were analyzed together in the same model, stillbirth rate of female calves compared to male calves was found to be more than 1.03 times higher. In addition, risk of stillbirth was decreased by increasing parity. On the other hand, the risk of stillbirth in summer calves was found to be higher than winter calves. In our country, data sets on stillbirth rates should be collected and risk factors that have an effect on stillbirth must be detected and then calf deaths could be controlled here, too.

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