Türkiye İçin Cari İşlemler Dengesi Beklentilerinin Rasyonalitesi Üzerine Ekonometrik Bir Analiz

Rasyonel beklentiler hipotezine göre ekonomik karar birimleri bir değişkenin gelecek değeri hakkında tahminde bulunurken ilgili değişkenin değerini etkileyen tüm faktörler hakkında tam bilgiye sahiptirler ve bu bilgileri etkin şekilde kullanırlar. Ancak bu ekonomik karar birimlerinin bir değişkenin gelecek değeri hakkında tahmin yaparken hata yapmayacağı anlamına gelmez. Rasyonel beklentiler hipotezine göre ekonomik karar birimleri tahmin hatası yapabilirler ancak bu hatayı sürdürmezler. Diğer bir ifadeyle sistematik hata yapmazlar. Rasyonel beklentiler hipotezinin ekonomik birimlerin sistematik hata yapmayacakları varsayımı iktisat tarihi boyunca çok kez eleştirilmiş ve rasyonel beklentiler hipotezinin geçerliliği çok sayıda çalışmaya konu olmuştur. Bu çalışmada da rasyonel beklentiler hipotezinin geçerliliği Türkiye’nin cari işlemler dengesi beklentileri özelinde test edilmektedir. Beklentilerin yansızlığının ve etkinliğinin analiz edildiği çalışmada her iki hipotez de reddedilerek temel olarak Türkiye’de cari işlemler dengesi beklentilerinin rasyonel beklentiler hipotezinin öne sürdüğünün aksine rasyonel olmadığı sonucuna varılmıştır.

Türkiye İçin Cari İşlemler Dengesi Beklentilerinin Rasyonalitesi Üzerine Ekonometrik Bir Analiz

According to the rational expectations hypothesis, while forecast about the future value of a variable, economic agents have whole information about all factors affecting the value of the relevant variable and use this information effectively. However, this does not mean that economic agents do not make mistakes in forecasting the future value of a variable. According to the rational expectations hypothesis, economic agents can make prediction errors, but they don't maintain this error. In other words, they do not make systematic mistakes. The assumption of the rational expectations hypothesis that economic agents do not make systematic mistakes has been criticized many times throughout the history of economics, and the validity of the rational expectations hypothesis has been the subject of many studies. In this study, the validity of the rational expectations hypothesis is tested with Turkey's current account balance expectations. In the study, in which analyzed the unbiasedness and and efficiency of expectations are analyzed, both hypotheses are rejected and it is concluded that current account balance expectations for Turkey are not rational contrary to what the rational expectations hypothesis suggests.

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