Türkiye’de yurtiçi tasarruflar ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki: Uygulamalı bir analiz (1960 – 2004)

: Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’nin 1960-2004 döneminde yurtiçi tasarruf oranları ile ekonomik büyüme oranları arasındaki nedensel ilişkiyi açıklamak için vektör hata düzeltme modeli(VECM) ve kointegrasyon tekniklerinden yararlanılmıştır. Bu çalışmada üç tür analiz yapılmıştır. Birincisi, ekonomik büyüme ve yurtiçi tasarrufların zaman serilerinin durağanlığının ADF birim kök testleriyle araştırılmasıdır. İkincisi, ekonomik büyüme ile yurtiçi tasarruf oranları arasındaki uzun dönem ilişkisi Johansen ve Juselius kointegrasyon yöntemiyle incelenmiştir. Son olarak, ekonomik büyüme ile yurtiçi tasarruf oranları arasındaki ilişkiyi belirlemek için Granger nedensellik testi uygulanmıştır. Kointegrasron test sonuçlarına göre iki seri arasındaki ilişki I(1)’dir. Bu durum bize ekonomik büyüme ile tasarruf oranları arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişkinin olduğunu gösterir. Granger nedensellik test sonuçları ise, geleneksel görüşün aksine, Türkiye’de ekonomik büyümeden yurtiçi tasarruf oranlarına doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik gösterir.

The relationship between domestic savings and economic growth in Turkey: An empirical analysis (1960–2004)

This paper utilizes cointegration and the vector error-correction model(VECM) to explore the causal relationship between economic growth and growth rate of domestic savings for Turkey over the period of 1960-2004. Specifically, three analyses were undertaken. First, the time series properties of economic growth and domestic savings were ascertained with the help of the augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root procedure. Second, the long-run relationship between economic growth and growth rate of domectic savings was examined in the context of the Johansen and Juselius (1990) framework. Finally, a Granger-causality test was undertaken to determine the direction of causality between economic growth and growth rate of domestic savings. The results indicate one order of integration(I(1)) for each of the series. The results of the cointegration tests suggest that there is a lon-run relationship between economic growth and growth rate of savings. The results from Granger-causality tests indicate that contrary to the conventional wisdom, economic growth causes growth rate of savings for Turkey.

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