TELAFİ HİPOTEZİNİN TÜRKİYE'DE GEÇERLİLİĞİ: BÖLGESEL PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ

Bu çalışmanın amacı telafi hipotezini, ticari dışa açıklık ile sosyal güvenlik ve sosyal yardım hizmetleri arasındaki ilişki açısından Türkiye özelinde analiz etmektir. Bu doğrultuda analiz Türkiye özelinde 26 bölge için 2004-2011 yılları açısından test edilmiştir. Çalışmada serilerin durağanlıklarının panel birim kök testleri incelendikten sonra değişkenler arasındaki uzun dönem ilişkisinin varlığı Panel Pedroni ve Kao eşbütünleşme testleriyle tespit edilmiştir. Ayrıca söz konusu ilişkinin yönü ve büyüklüğü ise Panel DOLS yöntemiyle tahmin edilmiştir. Panel birim kök testleri serilerin seviyede durağan olmadıklarını fakat birincil farklarında durağan olduklarını göstermektedir. Panel Pedroni ve Kao eşbütünleşme testleri sonucunda serilerin uzun dönemde eşbütünleşik oldukları tespit edilmiştir. Bunun yanında Panel DOLS sonuçları hem bölgesel hem de panel genelinde ticari dışa açıklığın, sosyal güvenlik ve sosyal yardım hizmetleri harcamalarını pozitif yönde etkilediğini göstermektedir

VALIDITY OF COMPENSATION HYPOTHESES IN TURKEY: A REGIONAL PANEL DATA ANALYSIS

The aim of this paper is to analyze compensation hypothesis in terms of relationship between trade openness and social security and social solidarity services in Turkey. The analysis has been conducted for 26 regions (NUTS-2) over the period 2004-2011. Long term relationship between variables is determined with Panel Pedroni and Kao cointegration tests after panel unit root tests of stationaries of series are analyzed. Moreover, direction and magnitude of the long-term relationship is estimated by Panel DOLS. Panel unit root tests show that the variables were non-stationary process in levels but stationary in first difference. The Panel Pedroni and Kao cointegration test results show that there exists a long run relationship between the variables over the period. Besides, Panel DOLS results show that trade openness affects social security and social solidarity services positively both regional and panel wide

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