TÜRKİYE’DE YOKSULLUĞUN RASSAL ETKİLER MULTİNOMİAL LOGİT MODEL İLE İNCELENMESİ

Yoksulluk bulunulan dönemdeki ve konumdaki refah düzeyindeki farklılıklara göre değişiklik gösterdiği için yoksulluğun dinamik yapısının incelenmesi oldukça önemlidir. Yoksulluğun dinamik yapısının panel verilerle incelenmesi yoksulluğun hem kronik ve geçici boyutunun öğrenilmesine hem de kronik ve geçici yoksul hanelerin profilinin ayrıntılı incelenmesine olanak sağlamaktadır. Panel verilerle aynı zamanda geçici yoksulların dönem dönem yoksulluğa giriş ve yoksulluktan çıkışlarını etkileyen etmenlerin de incelenmesi mümkün olmaktadır. Bu bilgiler doğrultusunda, bu çalışmada 2009-2012 dönemine ait TÜİK Gelir ve Yaşam Koşulları Araştırması (GYKA) panel mikro veri anketinden yararlanarak Türkiye’de hanelerin yoksulluktan çıkış, yoksulluğa geçiş ve kronik yoksulluk durumlarının belirleyicileri rassal etkiler multinomial logit modeli ile tahmin edilmiştir. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre hanehalkı reisinin ve hanenin özelliklerinin hanenin yoksulluk geçişi ve kronik yoksul olması üzerindeki etkileri farklılık göstermiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Kronik Yoksulluk, Geçici Yoksulluk, Rassal Etkiler Multinomial Logit Model

AN EXAMINATION OF POVERTY IN TURKEY: AN EVIDENCE FROM MULTINOMIAL LOGIT MODEL WITH RANDOM EFFECTS

It is important to examine the dynamic structure of poverty, as poverty can differ according to differences both in the welfare level and situation at a point in time. The examination of the dynamic structure of poverty by panel data allows both the learning of the chronic and transitory dimension of poverty and the examination of the profiles of chronic and transient poor families. It is also possible to investigate the factors influencing both of people who entries poverty at a point in time and people exist from poverty employing panel data. Therefore, this paper aims to provide the profile of poverty in Turkey, examining the determinants of poverty taking into account the dynamics of poverty; poverty outflow, transitory poverty and chronic poverty in Turkey using Turkish Statistical Institute, Income and Living Conditions Survey (SILC) panel micro data estimated employing the multinomial logit model with random effects The results show that the feautures of the household’s head and household have a different impact both on the transitory poverty and chronic poverty of household.

Keywords:

Chronic Poverty, Transient Poverty, Multinomial Logit Model with Random Effects,

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