İMALAT SANAYİ SEKTÖRÜNDE ÜRETİM VE BANKA KREDİLERİ İLİŞKİSİ: TÜRKİYE İÇİN EŞBÜTÜNLEŞME VE NEDENSELLİK ANALİZİ

Sanayi sektörünün en büyük alt sektörü konumundaki imalat sanayi sektörü; özellikle Türkiye’nin de içinde bulunduğu gelişmekte olan ülkelerde ihracatın, istihdamın ve inovasyonların önemli bir kaynağı olarak ekonomik büyümeye katkı sağlamaktadır. Dış finansman kaynağı olarak hisse senedi ihracı ile özkaynak finansmanı imkânlarının yetersiz olduğu ülkemizde, imalat sanayi işletmeleri banka kredilerini sabit varlık ve çalışma sermayesi finansmanında yoğun olarak kullanmaktadır. Çalışmada aylık imalat sanayi üretim endeksi ile yurtiçi bankaların imalat sanayi sektörüne kullandırdığı aylık nakdi kredi hacmi arasındaki ilişkiler, 1999-2015 dönemi verileriyle Türkiye için Johansen eşbütünleşme testi ve VECM’ye dayalı Granger nedensellik testi ile araştırılmıştır. Ekonometrik analiz sonuçları; imalat sanayi sektöründe üretim ve banka kredilerinin eşbütünleşik olduğunu, aralarında uzun dönemde pozitif bir ilişkinin bulunduğunu ve üretimden banka kredilerine doğru bir nedenselliğin varlığını göstermektedir. Analiz sonuçları; finansal sektörün reel ekonominin ihtiyaçlarına göre şekil aldığını savunan talep-takipli görüşü, Türkiye imalat sanayi sektörü özelinde, desteklemektedir. Anahtar Kelimeler: İmalat Sanayi Sektörü, Banka Kredileri, Eşbütünleşme, Nedensellik, Vektör Hata Düzeltme Modeli (VECM).

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PRODUCTION AND BANK CREDITS IN MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY SECTOR: COINTEGRATION AND CAUSALITY ANALYSIS FOR TURKEY

Manufacturing industry sector, the largest subsector of industry sector, contributes to economic growth as an important source of export, employment and innovations especially in developing countries including Turkey. In our country where equity financing by issuing shares as external source possibilities are insufficent, manufacturing industry businesses use bank credits intensely for financing fixed assets and working capital. In this article relations between monthly manufacturing industry production index and monthly volume of cash credit to manufacturing industry sector given by domestic banks have been searched for Turkey with 1999-2015 data by using Johansen cointegration test and VECM based Granger causality test. Econometric analysis results show that production and bank credits in the manufacturing industry sector are cointegrated, there is a positive relationship between these variables and causality from production to bank credits in the long run. Analysis results for Turkish manufacturing industry sector support the demand following view stating that financial sector follows real economy. Key-words: Manufacturing Industry Sector, Bank Credits, Cointegration, Causality, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM).

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