İzmir Menemen Bölgesinin Güneş Işınım Tahmini için Angström-Prescott Modeli Temelli Yaklaşımların Değerlendirilmesi

Öz Güneş enerjisi, sınırlı bir ömre sahip olan ve çevreye zarar veren fosil yakıtların yerini alacak önemli bir role ve potansiyele sahiptir. Güneş enerjili sistemleri uygun şekilde tasarlamak, projelendirmek, inşa etmek ve işletmek için güneş ışınımı bilgisi gereklidir. Güneş ışınımı tüm dünyada nadiren ölçülmekle birlikte, diğer meteorolojik parametreler hemen hemen tüm istasyonlarda ölçülmektedir. Güneş ışınımının ölçüldüğü istasyonların veri tabanlarında da boşluklar bulunmaktadır. Bu noktada güneş ışınımının tahmini önem kazanmaktadır. Literatürde güneş ışınımının güneşlenme süresine bağlı olarak hesaplandığı Angström-Prescott modeli ve bu modelin geliştirilmesi yaklaşımıyla oluşturulmuş farklı modeller bulunmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, Menemen ilçesinde küresel güneş radyasyonunu tahmin etmek için yıllık ve mevsimlik modeller oluşturulmuştur. Ayrıca Angström-Prescott yöntemi temelli modellerin güneş ışınım şiddeti tahmini amacıyla kullanımında hangi modelin daha etkin olduğu Menemen ilçesi için araştırılarak karşılaştırılmalar gösterilmiştir. Bu modelleri oluşturmak için MATLAB programı kullanılmıştır. Son olarak bu modeller ile hesaplanan global güneş ışınımı değerleri ve yer ölçümleri R2, SSE, RMSE gibi istatistiksel testler ve hata analizleri ile karşılaştırılmış, hesaplanan ve ölçülen değerler grafiklerle gösterilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Menemen, Küresel güneş ışınımı, güneşlenme süresi, Anström-Prescott model

Evaluation of Angström-Prescott Model-Based Approaches for the Estimation of Solar Irradiance of Menemen, İzmir Region

Solar energy has an important role and potential to replace fossil fuels that have a limited lifespan and cause environmental damage. Solar radiation knowledge is needed to design, project, build and operate solar energy systems properly. Although solar radiation is rarely measured all over the world, other meteorological parameters are measured at almost all stations. There are also gaps in the data bases of the stations where solar radiation is measured. At this point, the estimation of solar radiation becomes important. In the literature, there are Angström-Prescott model, in which solar radiation is calculated depending on the sunshine duration, and other models created with the approach of developing this model. In this study, annual and seasonal models were created to estimate global solar radiation in Menemen district. In addition, the comparisons are shown by investigating which model is more effective in the use of models based on Angström Prescott method for the estimation of solar radiation intensity in Menemen district. MATLAB program was used to create these models. Finally, global solar radiation values calculated with these models and the ground measurements were compared with statistical tests and error analyzes such as R2, SSE, RMSE, and the calculated and measured values were shown in graphics.

Keywords:

Global solar radiation, Sunshine duration, Anström-Prescott model,

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