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Taşkın Pik Debisinin Belirlenmesinde WinTR-55 Hidrolojik Modelinin Kullanımı: Kırklareli Vize Deresi ve Samsun Minöz Deresi Havzaları Örneği

İklim değişikliği, su kaynaklarını etkileyen başlıca parametredir. Bu parametre, kuraklık ve sel gibi ekstrem hidrolojik olayları şiddetlendirecektir. Tarımsal havzalarda muhtemel pik debilerin belirlenmesi, ürün kayıplarının önlenmesi açısından önemlidir. Tarımsal havzalara (hidrolojiye) uygun materyal ve yöntemin kullanıldığı, bu çalışmanın genel amacı; Windows Technical Release-55 (WinTR-55) modelinin tahmin gücünün başarısını belirlemektir. Bu çalışmada, Kırklareli Vize Deresi ve Samsun Minöz Deresi havzalarının verileri kullanılarak WinTR-55 modeliyle tahmin edilen pik debiler, gözlenen pik debilerle karşılaştırılmıştır. En başarılı tahmin; Vize Çayı havzasında %25 hata ile 100 yıllık tekerrür için, Minöz Çayı havzasında %2 hata ile 10 yıllık tekerrür için gerçekleşmiştir. Daha büyük pik debiler tahminlemeye eğilimli olan WinTR-55 yardımıyla, her bir tekerrür periyodunda gözlenen pik debilere kıyasla, daha büyük pik debiler tahmin edilmiştir. Böylece WinTR-55’in; Vize deresi ve Minöz deresi havzasında taşkın zararlarının önlenmesinde güvenle kullanılabileceği anlaşılmıştır. Sonuç olarak; Devlet Su İşleri (DSİ) gibi kamu kurumlarında hesaplanan pik debinin, WinTR-55 modeli yardımıyla yapılması önerilmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Taşkın Pik Debisi, Vize ve Minöz Dereleri Havzası, Wintr-55, Hidrolojik Model

Use of the WinTR-55 Hydrologic Model on Determination of Flood Peak Discharge: The Case of Kirklareli Vize Stream and Samsun Minoz Stream Watersheds

Climate change is the main parameter affecting water resources. This parameter will exacerbate hydrologic extreme events like drought and flood. Determination of possible peak flow in the agricultural watershed is important in terms of preventing crop losses. The materials and the methods suitable for agricultural watersheds (hydrology) were used in this study. The general aim of this study is to determine the success of estimation power of the Windows Technical Release-55 (WinTR-55) Model. In this study, the peak flows estimated by the WinTR-55 model using the data of the Kirklareli Vize and Samsun Minoz Stream watersheds were compared with the observed peak flows. The most successful estimation was for the 100-year return period with error 25% in the Vize stream watershed and was for the 10-year return period with error 2% in the Minoz Stream watershed. With the aid of the WinTR-55, which tends to predict larger peak flow rates, greater peak flow rates were estimated compared with observed peak flow for each return period. So, it was understood that WinTR-55 can be used for the prevention of flood damage in the Vize and Minoz Stream watersheds confidently. As a result, it is recommended that calculated peak flow in public institutions such as State Hydraulics Works (SHW) should made with the help of the WinTR-55 model.

Keywords:

Flood Peak Discharge, Vize and Minoz Stream Watersheds, Wintr-55, Hydrologic Model,

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ISSN: 2528-9640
Yayın Aralığı: Yılda 2 Sayı
Başlangıç: 2015
Yayıncı: Artvin Çoruh Üniversitesi Doğal Afetler Uygulama ve Araştırma Merkezi