MIST EKONOMİLERİNDE YURTİÇİ TASARRUFLAR ÜZERİNE AMPİRİK BİR ARAŞTIRMA

Bu çalışma, MIST (Meksika, Endonezya, Güney Kore ve Türkiye) ülkelerinin 1990-2019 dönemine ait yıllık verileri kapsamında reel GSYH, sabit sermaye, hükümete ait nihai tüketim harcamaları, enflasyon oranı ve cari işlemler dengesi oluşumlarının yurtiçi tasarruflar üzerindeki etkisinin dengeli panel veri yöntemi ile analiz edilmesini amaçlamaktadır. Analizde kullanılan panel birimlerinin yatay kesit bağımlılığına ilişkin durumları Pesaran (2015) CD testi yardımıyla araştırılmış ve serilerin zayıf birimlerarası korelasyonlu olduğu belirlenmiştir. Bu nedenle analiz değişkenlerinin durağanlık analizi için 1. Nesil panel birim kök testlerinden olan Levin vd. (2002) (LLC) testinden yararlanılmış ve tasarruf, GSYH, enflasyon ve cari denge serilerinin I(0); kamu harcamaları serisinin ise I(I) düzeyinde durağan olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Bu kapsamda oluşturulan model için uygulanan sabit etkili panel regresyon analizi Driscoll & Kraay (1998) tahmincisi kullanılarak tahmin edilmiştir. Analiz sonucunda, yurtiçi tasarrufların GSYH içindeki payının ekonomik büyüme, sabit sermaye oluşumları ve cari işlemler dengesinden pozitif; enflasyon ve hükümet harcamalarından ise negatif yönde etkilendiği tespit edilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgulara göre, tasarruflar üzerinde en fazla etkisi olan değişkenin cari işlemler dengesi, en az etki düzeyine sahip değişkenin ise büyüme olması dikkat çekmektedir. Bu sonuç, yurtiçi tasarrufların ülkelerin dış ekonomik dengeye ilişkin istikrar performansı ile yakından ilgili olduğunun bir göstergesidir. Nitekim cari işlemler dengesi iyileşmeleri ülkelerin iç ekonomik denge dinamiklerini de olumlu yönde etkileyerek tasarruf artışına katkıda bulunabilecektir. Bununla birlikte ekonomik büyümenin tasarruflar üzerindeki etkisinin düşük düzeyde olması dış dengeye yönelik politikalara öncelik verilmesi gerektiği yönünde değerlendirilebilecektir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Tasarruf, Enflasyon, Cari İşlemler Dengesi

AN EMPIRICAL RESEARCH ON DOMESTIC SAVINGS IN MIST ECONOMIES

The current study aims to analyze the effect of real GDP, fixed capital, final consumption expenditures of the government, inflation rate, and current account balance formations on domestic savings within the scope of the annual data of MIST (Indonesia, South Korea, Mexico and Turkey) countries for the period of 1990-2019 by using the balanced panel data method. The cross-sectional dependence of the panel units used in the analysis was investigated using Pesaran (2015) CD test, and it was determined that the series had a weak inter-unit correlation. Therefore, Levin et al. (2002) (LLC) test, which is one of the first generation panel unit root tests, was used for the stationarity analysis of the analysis variables, and it was concluded that savings, GDP, inflation and current account balance series were stationary at the I(0) level while the public expenditure series were stationary at the I(I) level. The fixed effect panel regression analysis applied for the model created in this context was estimated using the Driscoll & Kraay (1998) estimator. As a result of the analysis, it has been determined the share of domestic savings that is positively affected in GDP from economic growth, fixed capital formations and current account balance; it is negatively affected from inflation and government expenditures. According to the findings, it is noteworthy that the variable with the most impact on domestic savings is the current account balance, while the variable with the least impact is growth. This result is an indication that domestic savings are closely related to the stability performance of countries regarding the external economic balance. As a matter of fact, the improvements in the current account balance will positively affect the domestic economic balance dynamics of the countries and contribute to the increase in savings. However, the low level of economic growth's impact on savings can be evaluated in the direction of giving priority to policies for external balance.

Keywords:

Savings, Inflation, Current Account Balance Savings, Inflation, Current Account Balance,

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