Trend Analysis of Monthly Total Rainfall and Monthly Mean Air Temperature Variables of Yozgat in Turkey

Bu çalışmanın amacı, aylık toplam yağış ve ortalama aylık hava sıcaklığında olası trendleri MannKendall (MK) ve yakın zamanda Şen tarafından önerilen yeni bir yöntem ile belirlemektir. Şen metodu, 1970 ve 2016 tarihleri arasında Türkiye'de Yozgat'ta kaydedilen iki değişkenin trend analizi için kullanılmıştır. Karşılaştırma amacıyla iyi bilinen MK trend testi de aynı verilere uygulanmıştır. İlk adımda, veriler 1970-1992 ve 1993-2016 olmak üzere iki zaman aralığına ayrılmıştır. Her iki zaman aralığı ayrı ayrı analiz edilmiş ve birbiriyle karşılaştırılmıştır. Sonuç olarak, MK testine göre 1970-1992 ve 1993-2016 zaman aralıklarında her iki değişken için %95 çift yönlü güven aralığında istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir trend bulunmamıştır. Ancak, Şen trend testine göre 1970-1992 döneminde aylık toplam yağış için %95 tek yönlü güven aralığında artan bir trendin olduğu bulunmuştur. Ayrıca, Şen trend testine göre 1993-2016 döneminde ortalama aylık hava sıcaklığı için de artan bir trendin olduğu bulunmuştur

Yozgat’ın Aylık Toplam Yağış ve Aylık Ortalama Hava Sıcaklıklarının Trend Analizi

The purpose of this study is to detect possible trends in monthly total rainfall and monthly mean air temperature on the basis of Mann-Kendall (MK) and a new method recently proposed by Şen. The new method is used for trend analysis of both variables’ data recorded at Yozgat province in Turkey over the period 1970-2016. For comparison purpose, the well-known MK trend test is also applied to the same data. In the first step, the historical data were divided into two time periods: 1970-1992 (276 values) and 1993-2016 (288 values). Each time part was analysed individually, and both parts were compared with each other. Consequently, there is no statistically significant trend for both variables at 95% two-tailed confidence interval in the period 1970-1992 and 1993-2016 according to the Mann-Kendall trend test. However, there is an increasing trend for monthly total rainfall at 95% one-way confidence interval in the period 1970-1992 according to the Şen trend test. Moreover, there is an increasing trend for monthly mean air temperature in the period 1993-2016 according to the Şen trend test

___

  • 1. IPCC, 2014. Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]., Geneva, Switzerland, 151 pp.
  • 2. IPCC, 2008. Climate change and water. Technical Paper of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 28th Sesion. 09-10 April, Budapest, IPCC-XXVIII/Doc.13. Some people: Osman, B., Payne, R., Nurse, L., Bates, B.C., Kundzewic, Z.W., Wu, S. (Editors).
  • 3. Kadıoğlu, M., 1997. Trends Surface Air Temperature Data Over Turkey. International Journal of Climatology, 17:511-520.
  • 4. Kadıoğlu, M., 2000. Regional Variability of Seasonal Precipitation Over Turkey. International Journal of Climatology, 20:1743- 1760.
  • 5. Safari, B., 2012. Trend Analysis of the Mean Annual Temperature in Rwanda During the Last Fifty-Two Years. Journal of Environmental Protection, 3: 538-551.
  • 6. Beyene, A.N., 2016. Precipitation and Temperature Trend Analysis in Mekelle city, Northern Ethiopia, the Case of Illala Meteorological Station. Journal Earth Science & Climate Change, 7(1):1-6.
  • 7. Haktanir, T., Çitakoğlu H., 2014. Trend, Independence, Stationarity, and Homogeneity Tests On Maximum Rainfall Series of Standard Durations Recorded in Turkey. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 19(9), http://dx.doi. org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000973.
  • 8. Haktanir, T., Çitakoğlu, H., 2015. Closure to Trend, Independence, Stationarity, and Homogeneity Tests on Maximum Rainfall Series of Standard Durations Recorded in Turkey by Tefaruk Haktanır and Hatice Çitakoğlu. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 20(10), 7015017-1-7015017-2.
  • 9. Mohsin, T., Gough, W.A., 2010. Trend Analysis of Long-term Temperature Time Series in the Greater Toronto Area. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 101:311-327.
  • 10.Jones, R.J., Schwartz, S.J., Ellis, N.K., Hathaway, M.J., Jawdy, M.C., 2015. Temporal Variability of Precipitation in the Upper Tennesse Valley. Journal of Hydrology, 3:125- 138.
  • 11. Turkes, M., 1996. Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Annual Rainfall Variations in Turkey. International Journal of Climatology, 16:1057-1076.
  • 12.Buffoni, L., Maugeri, M., Nanni, T., 1999. Precipitation in Italy from 1833 to 1996. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 63:33-40.
  • 13. Whitfield, P.H., Cannon, A.J., 2000. Recent Variations in Climate and Hydrology in Canada. Water Resource Journal, 25(1):19-65.
  • 14. Yue, S., Hashino, M., 2003. Long Term Trends of Annual and Monthly Precipitation in Japan. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 39(3):587-596.
  • 15. Gemmer, M., Becker, S., Jiang, T., 2004. Observed Monthly Precipitation Trends in China 1951-2002. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 77:39-45.
  • 16.Cannarozzo, M., Noto, L.V., Viola, F., 2006. Spatial Distribution of Rainfall Trends in Sicily (1921-2000). Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C, 31(18):1201-1211.
  • 17. Partal, T., Kahya, E., 2006. Trend Analysis in Turkey Precipitation Data. Hydrological Process, 20: 2011-2026.
  • 18. Turkes, M., Koc, T., Sarıs, F., 2009. Spatiotemporal Variability of Precipitation Total Series Over Turkey. International Journal of Climatology, 29(8):1056-1074.
  • 19. Tabari, H., Hosseinzadeh Talaee, P., 2011. Temporal Variability of Precipitation Over Iran: 1966-2005. Journal of Hydrology, 396 (3-4):313-320.
  • 20. Yavuz, H., Erdogan, S., 2012. Spatial Analysis of Monthly and Annual Precipitation Trends in Turkey. Water Resource Management, 26: 609-612.
  • 21. Haktanir, T., Bajabaa, S., Masoud, M., 2013. Stochastic Analyses of Maximum Daily Rainfall Series Recorded at Two Stations Across the Mediterranean Sea. Arabian Journal of Geoscience, 6(10):3943-3958.
  • 22. Dinpashoh, Y., Mirabbasi, R., Jhajharia, D., Abianeh, H.Z., Mostafaeipour, A., 2014. Effect of Short Term and Long-term Persistence on Identification of Temporal Trends. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 19(3), doi:10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000819
  • 23. Fathian, F., Morid, S., Kahya, E., 2014. Identification of Trends in Hydrological and Climatic Variables in Urmia Lake Basin, Iran. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 119(3):443-464.
  • 24. Addisu, S., Selassie, Y.G., Fissha, G., Gedif, B., 2015. Time Series Trend Analysis of Temperature and Rainfall in Lake Tana SubBasin, Ethiopia. Environmental System Research, 4(25): 01-12.
  • 25.Chattopadhyayi, S., Edwards, D.R., 2016. Long-Term Trend Analysis of Precipitation and Air Temperature for Kentucky, United States. Climate, 4(10), doi:10.3390/cli4010010.
  • 26. Ay, M., 2016. Water Structures, Water Resources and Features of Yozgat Province in Turkey. 01st International Bozok Symposium, Abstract Book, 294-295p, Bozok University, May 05-07, 2016, Yozgat, Turkey.
  • 27. Mann, H.B., 1945. Nonparametric Tests Against Trend. Econometrica, 13(3):245-259.
  • 28. Yevjevich, V., 1972. Stochastic Processes in Hydrology. Water Resources Publications, 276p. Fort Collins, CO.
  • 29. Kendall, M.G., 1975. Rank Correlation Methods. Oxford University Press, New York.
  • 30. Kottegoda, N.T., 1980. Stochastic Water Resources Technology. The MacMillan Press.
  • 31. Helsel, D.R., Hirsch, R.M., 2002. Statistical Methods in Water Resources. Techniques of Water-Resources Investigations of the United States Geological Survey Book 4, Chapter A3, Hydrologic Analysis and Interpretation.
  • 32. Yue, S., Pilon, P., Caradias, G., 2002. Power of the Mann-Kendall and Spearman's Rho Tests for Detecting Monotonic Trends in Hydrological Series. Journal of Hydrology, 259:254-271.
  • 33. Onoz, B., Bayazit, M., 2003. The Power of Statistical Tests for Trend Detection. Turkish Journal of Engineering & Environmental Sciences, 27:247-251.
  • 34. Şen, Z., 2015. Innovative Trend Significance Test and Applications. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, DOI10.1007/s00704-015-1681-x.
  • 35. Şen, Z., 2012. Innovative Trend Analysis Methodology. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 17(9):1042-1046.
  • 36. Şen, Z., 2013. Square Diagonal Trend Test Procedure. 6th International Perspective on Water Resources & The Environment. January, 07-09, (in CD), Izmir.
  • 37. Şen, Z., 2014. Trend Identification Simulation and Application. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 19(3):635-642.
  • 38. Ay, M., Kişi, Ö., 2013. Investigation of Precipitation Trends of Some Provinces in Turkey. 3rd Turkey Climate Change Congress, ISBN: 978-605-62559-0-8, 109-117, 03-05 June, Istanbul Technical University (ITU).
  • 39. Kisi, O., Ay, M., 2014. Comparison of Mann Kendall and Innovative Trend Method for Water Quality Parameters of the Kizilirmak River, Turkey. Journal of Hydrology, 513: 362-375.
  • 40. Ay, M., Kisi, O., 2015. Investigation of Trend Analysis of Monthly Total Precipitation by an Innovative Method. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 120(3): 617-629.
  • 41. Von Storch, H., 1995. Misuses of Statistical Analysis in Climate Research. Analysis of Climate Variability: Applications of Statistical Techniques. H.V. Storch and A. Navarra (Editors), Springer, Berlin, pp.11-26.
  • 42. Douglas, E.M., Vogel, R.M., Kroll, C.N., 2000. Trends in Floods and Low Flows in the United States: Impact of Spatial Correlation. Journal of Hydrology, 240(1-2):90-105.
  • 43. Sang, Y-F., Wang, Z., Liu, C., 2014. Comparison of the MK Test and EMD Method for Trend Identification in Hydrological Time Series. Journal of Hydrology, 510:293-298.
  • 44.Bayazit, M., Onoz, B., 2007. To Prewhiten or not to Prewhiten in Trend Analysis? Hydrological Sciences Journal, 52(4): 611-624.
  • 45. Sen, B., Topcu, S., Türkes¸ M., Sen, B., Warner, J.F., 2012. Projecting Climate Change, Drought Conditions and Crop Productivity in Turkey. Climate Research, 52:175-191.
  • 46. General Directorate of Meteorology (GDM), 2015. Research Department, Symposium Articles in 2015 of Climatology Branch Directorate, 118 pp, Ankara.