Türkiye’de Doğurganlık, Göç ve Mekânsal Etkileşim: Seçicilik Hipotezi Kapsamında Bir Analiz

Göç bir yer değiştirme sürecidir ve toplumları sosyal, ekonomik ve yapısal olarak etkilemektedir. Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de göçün doğurganlık üzerindeki etkisini ölçmektedir. 2013 Türkiye Nüfus ve Sağlık Araştırmasından elde edilen veriler kullanılarak Robust Poisson modeline dayalı seçicilik hipotezi dikkate alınarak analizler gerçekleştirilmiştir. Değişkenler arasındaki ilişkiyi değerlendirirken sosyal normların ve komşuluk ilişkilerinin rolünü dikkate almamak bütüncül bir bakış açısına engel olmakta; dolayısıyla bu çalışmada mekansal etkileşim boyutu da dikkate alınmaktadır. Bulgular, kadınların doğurganlık davranışlarını önemli ölçüde etkileme eğiliminde olan değişkenlerin, kentten kıra göç eden kadınların doğurganlık davranışları üzerinde etkisinin olmadığını göstermektedir. Kırdan kente göç eden kadınların ve kentlerde yaşayan kadınların doğurganlık davranışları üzerinde yaş, eğitim, çalışma durumu ve hanehalkı refahı gibi değişkenler önemli bir etkiye sahipken, bu değişkenlerin kırsal kesimde doğurganlık üzerindeki etkisi çok daha yüksektir. Bu bağlamda çalışma, Türkiye’de göç ve doğurganlık arasındaki mekansal bir ilişkiyi ortaya koymakta ve dolayısıyla seçicilik hipotezini geçersiz kılmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Doğurganlık, Göç, Mekansal Etkileşim, Robust Poisson Regresyon Modeli

Fertility, Migration, and Spatial Interaction in Turkey: An Analysis under the Selectivity Hypothesis

Migration is a process of displacement, and it affects societies socially, economically, and structurally. This study gauges the impact of migration on fertility in Turkey. The evaluation is conducted in consideration of the selectivity hypothesis based on the Robust Poisson model. The data obtained from the 2013 Turkey Demographic and Health Survey were analyzed for this purpose. Not considering the role of social norms and one’s neighborhood relations while evaluating the relationship between variables prevents a holistic perspective; thus, the aspect of spatial interaction is taken into account in this study. The findings suggest that the variables that tend to significantly affect the fertility behaviors of women do not have an impact on the fertility behaviors of women having migrated from urban to rural areas. While variables such as age, education, employment status and household welfare have a significant effect on the fertility behaviors of women who migrated from rural areas to the cities as well as women residing in cities, the effect of these variables on fertility in rural areas is much higher. In this context, the study unveils a spatial relationship between migration and fertility in Turkey and, thus, invalidates the selectivity hypothesis.

Keywords:

Fertility, Migration, Spatial Interaction, Robust Poisson Regression Model,

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