Güç, strateji ve potansiyeller: Çin ordusunun temel yetenekleri ve unsurları üzerine bir inceleme

Bu makale, Çin’in askeri gücünün, stratejisinin ve temel kabiliyetlerinin son on yıl içerisindeki ve önümüzdeki on yıldaki gelişimini -kara savaşına odaklanarak- ve bu gelişmenin Çin ve Çin’in bölgesel ve uluslararası rakiplerine yönelik politika etkilerini analiz etmektedir. Bu amaçla, Çin’in askeri gücü, stratejisi ve potansiyellerindeki değişimi analiz etmek için iki bölümlü bir teorik çerçeve tasarlanmıştır: (1) Çin askeri gücünün altında yatan siyasi, ekonomik, demografik ve toplumsal faktörleri tespit etmek ve çıkarsamak ve (2) kilit askeri yetenek alanlarının geçmiş, şimdiki ve gelecekteki olası gelişimini değerlendirmek. Makale, resmi Çin hükümet belgeleri, resmi bütçeler, yasalar ve basın açıklamaları dahil olmak üzere açık kaynaklara ve Savunma İstihbarat Ajansı, İsveç Savunma Araştırma Ajansı, Dış Askeri Araştırmalar Ofisi, RAND ve benzeri resmi, hükümet destekli ve hükümet dışı araştırma kurumları tarafından Çin ordusu hakkında yazılan bir dizi ayrıntılı açık kaynak rapora dayanmaktadır. Çin ve Batı medyası da, Çin’in askeri gelişmeleri ve operasyonları hakkında kaynak sağlamıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Çin, ulusal güvenlik, askeri güç, askeri kabiliyet, askeri strateji, askeri potansiyel

Power, strategy and potentials: A study on the factors and key capabilities of China’s military

This article summarises an analyses the development of China's military power, strategies and key capabilities over the last 10 years, and for the next 10 years. The article focuses on China’s ground combat capabilities and their implications for China’s regional and international rivals. The article puts forward a two-part theoretical framework for the study of the development of China's military power, strategy and potentials (1) to identify and forecast the political, economic, demographic and societal factors underlying the Chinese military, and (2) to evaluate the possible past, present and future advances in the main military capability zones. This article is based on open sources, including official Chinese government documents, and official budgets, laws and public statements, and on a range of detailed open-source reports about the Chinese military, issued by government, government-sponsored and non-governmental research institutions, such as the US Defense Intelligence Agency, the Swedish Defense Research Agency, the Foreign Military Studies Office and RAND, among others. The Chinese and Western news media also provided reporting on China’s military developments and operations.

Keywords:

China, national security, military power, military capacity, military strategy, military potentials,

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