TURKEY’S AGRICULTURAL EXPORT: AN APPLICATION OF THE GRAVITY MODEL

The aim of this study is to determine the agricultural export structure of Turkey with the gravity model method and discuss possible policy proposals. In line with this aim an annual panel data of 16 selected countries Turkey export to for the period 2001-2030 has been used in the gravity model. According to the estimation results, GDP and population of the countries that Turkey export to are related to the agricultural exports positively while the distance variable is negatively. As the per capita animal protein consumption ratio increase, it can be said that new agricultural export areas can be opened for Turkey. At this point, it has been determined that Turkey needs to follow increasing domestic consumption trends and emerging markets. As a result, it is important for policy makers to take into account the relevant determinations of the export strategy of agricultural products.

TÜRKİYE’NİN TARIMSAL İHRACATI: BİR ÇEKİM MODELİ UYGULAMASI

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’nin tarımsal ihracat yapısını çekim modeli yöntemi ile belirlemek, olası politika önerilerini tartışmaktır. Bu amaç doğrultusunda 2001-2030 yıllarını dönemini kapsayan ve Türkiye’nin ihracat yaptığı seçilmiş 16 temsilci ülkeye ait yıllık panel veriler çekim modelinde kullanılmıştır. Yapılan tahmin sonuçlarına göre, Türkiye’nin tarımsal ürün ihraç ettiği ülkelerin GSMH ve nüfusları tarımsal ihracatı ile pozitif yönde ilişkiliyken, mesafe değişkeni ise tarım ürünleri ihracatı ile negatif yönde ilişkilidir. Yine son yıllarda dünyadaki kişi başı hayvansal protein tüketim oranlarının arttığı bilinmektedir. Bu artışlar analiz sonuçları ile paralellik göstermektedir. Kişi başı hayvansal protein tüketim oranları arttıkça Türkiye için yeni tarımsal ihracat alanları açılabileceği söylenebilir. Bu noktada Türkiye’nin artan iç tüketim trendlerini ve yükselen pazarları takip etmesinin gerekli olacağı tespit edilmiştir. Sonuç olarak, politika yapıcıların tarım ürünleri ihracatı stratejisine yönelik söz konusu tespitleri dikkate almaları önem arz etmektedir.

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