2013

ABD ekonomisinin kontayner navlun oranları üzerine etkisi: Çin- Amerika rotasında bir uygulama

Konteyner taşımacılığı, dünyanın üretilen tüketim malları için çok önemli bir taşımacılık çeşididir. Deniz yoluyla yapılan ticaret ve dolayısıyla konteyner taşımacılığı çeşitli faktörlerden oldukça etkilenir. Küresel ekonomik büyüme, uluslararası ticaret, konteyner taşımacılığı pazarındaki arz-talep dengesi, konteyner taşımacılığı sektörünü etkileyen faktörlerden bazılarıdır. Küresel ekonomi en önemli talep faktörüdür. Konteyner taşımacılığında arz, esnek olmayan konteyner filosu kapasitesidir ve piyasa ani talep değişikliklerine cevap veremez. Ancak talep tarafındaki değişikler navlun oranları üzerinde ani etkiler yapabilir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, talepteki değişimlerin konteyner taşımacılığı navlun oranları üzerindeki etkisini ampirik olarak incelemektir. Analizde, dünyanın en büyük ekonomisi olan ABD'nin GSYİH'sindeki değişimin ABD ile Çin arasındaki konteyner navlun oranlarına etkisi regresyon analizi yöntemi ile incelenmiştir. Araştırma sonuçlarında, yapısal kırılmalar dikkate alındığında değişkenler arasındaki ilişkinin pozitif olduğu ve GSYİH'deki %1'lik bir değişimin navlun oranlarında %3,17'lik bir değişime neden olduğu tespit edilmiştir. COVİD-19'un da etkisiyle 2020 1. çeyrek sonrasında modelde yapısal kırılma olduğu da belirlenmiştir.

The impact of economic activities in US on container freight rates: An application on China-USA route

Container shipping is a crucial transportation method for manufactured consumer goods. Seaborne trade and container shipping is highly affected by various factors. Global economic growth, international trade, demand-supply balance in the container shipping market affect the container shipping industry. The global economy is the most critical demand factor. Supply in container shipping is container fleet capacity which is inelastic, and the market cannot respond to sudden demand changes. Therefore, changes on the demand side can rapidly impact freight. This study aims to empirically examine the effect of changes in demand on container shipping freight rates. In the analysis, the impact of t he c hanges i n the G DP o f the U SA, the world's l argest e conomy, o n t he container freights between the USA and China was examined by the regression analysis method. The research results have determined that the relationship between the variables is positive when the structural breaks are taken into account, and a 1% change in GDP causes a 3.17% change in freight rates. It was also determined that there was a structural break in the model after 2020 Q1 with COVID- 19. The findings show how sensitive maritime transport is too large economies and how big this situation poses.

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