Mehmet BEŞKİRLİ, Mehmet Fatih TEFEK, Harun UĞUZ

Modified Gravitational Search Algorithm for Energy Demand Estimation of Turkey

Ülke ekonomisi ve kaynakları bakımından enerji talebini önceden tahmin etmek çok önemli bir problemdir. Bu çalışmada, Yerçekimi Arama Algoritması (YAA) ile YAA’da yapılan bazı yenilikler yapılarak modifiye edilmiş ve Modifiye Yerçekimi Arama Algoritması (MYAA) olarak adlandırılmıştır. Enerji talep tahmini, Türkiye’deki ekonomik göstergelerin artışı ile enerji tüketimi arasındaki ilişki ile gerçekleşmektedir. Enerji talep tahmini için gayri safi yurtiçi hasıla (GSYH), ithalat, ihracat ve nüfus bilgileri hem lineer hem de üssel denklemler kullanılarak tahmin işlemi gerçekleştirildi. 1997-2011 yılları arasındaki veriler kullanılarak 2017-2037 yılları arasındaki enerji talebi tahmin edilmiştir. 2012 ile 2016 yılları ise test verisi olarak kullanılmıştır. MGSA ile elde edilen sonuçlar GSA sonuçlarına göre daha iyi bir tahmin gerçekleştirdiği görülmüştür.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Yerçekimi arama algoritması, Enerji talebi, Tahmin, Türkiye

Modified Gravitational Search Algorithm for Energy Demand Estimation of Turkey

Estimation of energy demand beforehand is a quite significant problem in respect of economy and sources of country. In this study, Gravitational Search Algorithm (GSA) was modified by making some innovations in GSA and called as Modified Gravitational Search Algorithm (MGSA). Energy demand estimation is conducted through the relationship between the increase in economic indicators in Turkey and energy consumption. Estimation was actualized by using gross domestic product (GSYH), importation, exportation and demography for energy demand estimation and both linear and exponential equations. Energy demand between the years 2017-2037 was predicted by using the data belong to 1997-2011. The years between 2012 and 2016 were used as test data. It was observed that the results acquired via MGSA estimate better compared to GSA results.

Keywords:

Gravitational search algorithm, Energy demand, Estimation, Turkey,

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