Enerji Güvenliği ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Türk Dünyası Ülke Panelinden Kanıtlar

Modern dünya ekonomisinin en stratejik girdisi konumunda olan enerji, uluslararası politik rekabetin de önemli bir unsurudur. Ampirik literatürde enerjinin ekonomik büyümedeki rolüne yönelik birçok çalışma bulunmasına rağmen, enerji güvenliği konusunda çok az sayıda çalışma mevcuttur. Bu bağlamda, Türk Dünyası ülkeleri arasında yer alan Türkiye, Azerbaycan, Kazakistan, Türkmenistan ve Özbekistan’dan oluşan panel veri setiyle 1992-2016 yılları arasında enerji güvenliği ve büyüme arasındaki ilişkiyi inceleyen bu çalışmayla literatüre önemli bir katkı yapılması hedeflenmiştir. Çalışmada kullanılan veri setinde yatay kesit bağımlılığı tespit edilmiş olup, bu duruma uygun ekonometrik yöntemlerden CIPS testi ile değişkenlerin farkında durağan olduğu; Panel Durbin-Hausman Eşbütünleşme testi ile değişkenler arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin varlığı tespit edilmiştir. AMG tahmincisinden elde edilen sonuçlara göre, enerji güvenliği risk seviyesinde %1 artış Türk Dünyası ülkelerinde ekonomik büyümeyi yaklaşık %0,95 azaltmaktadır. Elde edilen bu sonuçlar, enerji güvenliği konusunun Türk Dünyası ülkeleri için önemli bir politika meselesi olduğunu göstermekte, bu yönde uygulanacak politikaların önemini vurgulamaktadır

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Enerji Güvenliği, Enerji Ekonomisi, Enerji Jeopolitiği, Türk Dünyası, Büyüme, Durbin-Hausman Eşbütünleşme, Augmented Mean Group Estimator.

The Relationship between Energy Security and Economic Growth: Evidence from Panel of Turkic World Countries

Energy, which is the most strategic input of the modern world economy, is also an important element of international political competition. Although many studies in the current empirical literature provide evidence for the role of energy in economic growth, there are few studies in the empirical literature on energy security. In this context, it is aimed to make an important contribution to the literature with this study that examines the relationship between energy security and growth in the years 1992 to 2016 with the panel data set consisting of Turkey, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, which are among the countries of the Turkic World. The Cross-section dependence has been determined in the data set used in the study, and it has been determined that the variables are stationary at the first difference by the CIPS test, which is one of the econometric methods suitable for this situation. Then, it has been concluded that there is a cointegration relationship between the variables by the panel Durbin-Hausman cointegration test. According to the AMG estimator, a 1% increase in energy security risk reduces economic growth by approximately 0.95%. These results demonstrate that energy security is an important policy issue for the Turkic World countries and emphasizes the importance of policies to be implemented in this direction.

Keywords:

Energy Security, Energy Economy, Energy Geopolitics, Turkic World, Growth, Durbin-Hausman Cointegration, Augmented Mean Group Estimator.,

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