Muhammed BENLİ, Halil ALTINTAŞ, Muhittin KAPLAN

Petrol Fiyatlarının İktisadi Büyüme Üzerindeki Asimetrik Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği

Bu çalışma, petrol fiyatlarındaki değişimlerin Türkiye'nin reel ekonomik aktivitesi üzerindeki etkisini araştırmaktadır. Bu amaçla, kısa ve uzun dönemli asimetrilerin eşzamanlı olarak test edilmesine imkan veren ve ekonomik büyümenin açıklayıcı değişkenlerdeki değişimlere reaksiyonunun ölçülmesine olanak sağlayan Doğrusal Olmayan Gecikmesi Dağıtılmış Otoregresif (NARDL) modeli kullanılmıştır. Ampirik sonuçlar, petrol fiyatlarındaki değişikliklerin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki asimetrik etkisini doğrulamaktadır. Özellikle, petrol fiyatlarındaki artışların uzun dönemde ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi negatif olmakla birlikte bu etkinin şiddeti petrol fiyatlarındaki düşüşlerin etkisine oranla daha büyüktür ve ayrıca modelde petrol fiyatlarındaki düşüşlerin etkisi istatistiksel olarak anlamsız bulunmuştur. Bir başka deyişle, iktisadi büyüme petrol fiyatlarındaki düşüşlere tepki göstermezken, petrol fiyatlarındaki artışlara tepki vermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Petrol fiyatları, asimetri, iktisadi büyüme

Asymmetric Effect Of Oil Prices On Economic Growth: Evidence From Turkey

This study investigates the impact of changes in oil prices on the real economic activity of Turkey. For this purpose, we employ Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lags (NARDL) model which enables us to test the short-run and long-run asymmetries concurrently and allows us to measure the corresponding reaction of economic growth to changes in its regressors. The empirical results confirm the asymmetric effect of oil price changes on economic growth. Particularly, rises in oil prices have a negative influence on economic growth in the long run and this impact has a larger magnitude relative to declines in oil prices which are found to be statistically insignificant. That is to say, the output growth does not respond to the reductions in oil prices but rises in oil prices.

Keywords:

oil price, asymmetry, economic growth,

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