Testing Quantity Theory of Money for the Turkish Economy

Bu çalışmada, Paranın Miktar Kuramı ile ilgili temel varsayımların Türkiye ekonomisi koşullarında sınanmasına çalışılmaktadır. Miktar kuramının üzerine kurulduğu uzun dönem durağan ekonomik ilişkilerin incelenmesi amacıyla, çağdaş bazı tahmin yöntemleri kullanılmak suretiyle elde edilen bulgular, dar ve geniş kapsamlı tanımlanan parasal büyüklüklere ait dolanım hızlarının durağan yapısının reddedilemeyeceğini göstermektedir. Bununla birlikte, parasal büyüklükler fiyatların ve reel gelirin uzun-dönemli gelişimi açısından içsel bir özelliğe sahip olarak görülmektedir. Sonuç olarak inceleme döneminde, parasal yetkililerin parasal değişkenlerin içsel yapılarının veri olduğu bir ortamda uyumlaştırıcı bir para politikası izlediği düşünülmektedir.

Türkiye Ekonomisi'nde Miktar Kuramının Sınanması

In this paper, it is tried to test the main assumptions of the Quantity Theory of Money for the Turkish economy. Using some contemporaneous estimation techniques to examine the long-run stationary economic relationships on which the quantity theory is constructed, it is found that stationary characteristics of the velocitities of narrowly and broadly defined monetary aggregates cannot be rejected. However, monetary aggregates seem to be endogenous for the long-run evoluation of prices and real income. It is concluded that monetary authorities follow an accommodative monetary policy inside the period given the endogeneity of the monetary variables.

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