Genişletilmiş marshall-lerner koşulu çerçevesinde reel döviz kuru değişimlerinin Türkiye'nin dış ticaret performansına etkileri: Çoklu yapısal kırılmalı zaman serisi analizi

Bu çalışmanın amacı; reel döviz kuru ile dış ticaret dengesi arasındaki ilişkiyi, Türkiye'nin ara malları, sermaye malları, tüketim malları ve toplam dış ticaret verilerini kullanarak, genişletilmiş Marshall-Lerner koşulu çerçevesinde, 1989Q1-2012Q2 dönemi için, çoklu yapısal kırılmalı birim kök ve çoklu yapısal kırılmalı eşbütünleşme yöntemleri yardımıyla analiz etmektir. Çalışmada serilerin durağanlığı; Carrion-i-Silvestre (2009) çoklu yapısal kırılmalı birim kök yöntemiyle, seriler arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin varlığı; Maki (2012) çoklu yapısal kırılmalı eşbütünleşme yöntemiyle test edilmiş, eşbütünleşme katsayıları; dinamik en küçük kareler yöntemiyle tahmin edilmiştir. Yapılan analiz sonucunda, Türkiye'de bütün mal gruplarında, Genişletilmiş Marshall- Lerner koşulunun geçerli olduğu görülmüştür.

The effects of real exchange rate changes on Turkey's foreign trade performance within the framework of the extended marshall-lerner condition: time series analysis with multiple structural breaks

The purpose of this study is to analyze the relationship between real exchange rate and the balance of external trade of Turkey by using the intermediate goods, capital goods, consumption goods and total external trade data, within the extended Marshall-Lerner Condition framework, for 1989Q1-2012Q2 period by means of unit root test and cointegration methods with multiple structural breaks. In this study, the stationarity of series were tested with unit root test with multiple structural breaks of Carrion-i-Silvestre (2009). Cointegration relationship between series was tested via cointegration test with multiple structural breaks of Maki (2012). Cointegration coefficients were estimated by means of dynamic ordinary least square method. As a result of the analysis, extended Marshall-Lerner Condition is valid for all production groups in Turkey.

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