Türkiye'de Banka Karlılığının Belirleyicileri: Ölçek Büyüklükleri, Mülkiyet ve Finansal Krizler Temelinde Yeni Bir Analiz

Çalışmada Türkiye'de faaliyet gösteren ticari bankalarda karlılığı belirleyen değişkenlerin ve karlılık üzerindeki etkilerinin ortaya konması hedeflenmiştir. Yıllık ve üç aylık frekanslı veriler kullanılarak aktifler üzerinden getiri, özkaynaklar üzerinden getiri ve net faiz marjı karlılık ölçütleri doğrusal ve dinamik panel veri modelleriyle analiz edilmiştir. Modellerde ilgili yazında yaygın olarak kullanılan değişkenlere ek olarak, sektördeki bankaların ölçeklerini, mülkiyet yapılarını, yabancı bankaların ve krizlerin etkilerini yansıtan nitel değişkenlere de yer verilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular, banka sistemine özgü mikro değişkenler ile finansal sistemi yansıtan değişkenlerin karlılığı güçlü bir şekilde açıkladığını göstermektedir. Ölçeklerin, mülkiyetin, yabancı bankaların ve krizlerin etkileri beklendiği yönde olsa da fazla güçlü bulunmamıştır. Ayrıca makro ekonomik değişkenlerin de karlılığa olan etkilerinin sınırlı olduğu ve modelden modele değişkenlik gösterdiği gözlemlenmiştir.

Determinants of Bank Profitability in Turkey: A New Analysis on The Basis of Scale Size, Ownership and The Financial Crisis

The study aims analyzing the variables and its effects which determine the profitability of commercial banks operating in Turkey. Using annual and quarterly frequency data, return on assets (ROA), return on equity (ROE) and net interest margin (NIM) profitability measures were analyzed by linear and dynamic panel data models. In addition to the variables used in the literature, qualitative varibles such as bank scales, ownership structures, foreign banks and the crisis were also included in the models. Empirical findings suggest spesific micro variables to banking system and financial system variables that strongly determine profitability. Although the effects of scales, ownership, foreign banks and crisis as expected direction are not strong enough. In addition, the effects of macroeconomic variables on the profitability is limited, and it has been observed to vary from model to model.

PDF

___

Abreu, M. ve Mendes, V. (2002). Commercial Bank Interest Margins and Profitability: Evidence from E.U. Countries, CISEP - CEMPRE, Working Paper Series, Porto.
Alper, D. ve Anbar, A. (2011). Bank Spesific and Macroeconomic Determinants of Commercial Bank Profitability: Empirical Evidence from Turkey, Business and Economics Research Journal, 2(2), 139-152.
Altan, M. (2004). Türkiye'de Banka Gruplarının bilanço Dışı İşlemleri ve Bu İşlemlerin Bankaların Karlılık, Sermaye Yeterliliği, Aktif Kalitesi ve Likiditesi Üzerinde Yarattığı Etki, S.Ü. İ.İ.B.F. Sosyal ve Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi, Sayı 7, 19-37.
Arellano, M. (2005). Panel Data Econometrics: Advanced Texts in Econometrics, Oxford University Press.
Arellano, M ve Bond, S. (1991). Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Unemployment Equations, Review of Economic Studies, 58, 277-297.
Arellano, M. ve Bover, O. (1995). Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of ErrorComponents Models, Journal of Econometrics, 68(1), 29-51.
Athanasoglou, P.P.; Delis, D. ve Staikouras, C.K. (2006). Determinants of Bank Profitability in the Southern Eastern European Region, Bank of Greece Working Paper, No. 47, September.
Athanasoglou, P.P.; Brissimis, S.N. ve Delis, M.D. (2008). Bank-specific, Industry-specific and Macroeconomic Determinants of Bank Profitability, Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 18(2), 121-136.
Aburime, T.U. (2008). Determinants of Bank Profitability: Macroeconomic Evidence from Nigeria, SSRN Paper, September.
Bağcı, H. ve Rençber, Ö.F. (2014). Kamu Bankaları ve Halka Açık Özel Bankaların Promethee Yöntemi ile Karlılıklarının Analizi, Aksaray Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, 6(1), 39-47.
Baltagi, B.H. (2002). Econometric Analysis of Panel Data, Second Edition, Chichester: John Wiley and Sons.
Beltratti, A. ve Stulz, R.M. (2011). The Credit Crisis Around the Globe: Why Did Some Banks Perform Better?, Journal of Financial Economics, 105(1), 1-17.
Berger, A.N. (1995). The Profit - Structure Relationship in Banking: Tests of Market-Power and Efficient-Structure Hypotheses, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 27(2), 404-431.
Bourke, P. (1989). Concentration and Other Determinants of Bank Profitability in Europe, North America and Australia, Journal of Banking and Finance, 13(1), 65-79.
Blundell, R. ve Bond, S. (1998). Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models, Journal of Econometrics, 87(1), 115-143.
Çetin, A.C. ve Bıtırak, İ.A. (2010). Banka Karlılık Performansının Analitik Hiyerarşi Süreci ile Değerlendirilmesi: Ticari Bankalar ile Katılım Bankalarında Bir Uygulama, Alanya İşletme Fakültesi Dergisi, 2(2), 75-92.
Dağıdır, C. (2010). Türk Bankacılık Sektöründe Karlılık ve Makro Ekonomik Değişkenlerle İlişkisi, Ekonomi Bilimleri Dergisi, 2(1), 25-33.
Demirel, E.; Atakişi, A. ve Abacıoğlu, S. (2013). Bankacılık Faaliyet Oranlarının Panel Veri Analizi: Türkiye'deki Kamu, Özel ve Yabancı Sermayeli Bankaların Durumu, Muhasebe ve Finansman Dergisi, Temmuz, 101-111.
Demirgüç-Kunt, A. ve Huizinga, H. (1999). Determinants of Commercial Bank Interest Margins and Profitability: Some International Evidence, World Bank Economic Review, 13(2), 379-408.
Demirgüç-Kunt, A. ve Huizinga, H. (2000). Financial Structure and Bank Profitability, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper Series, No: 2430, January.
Diaconu, I.R. ve Oanea, D.C. (2014). Determinants of Bank Profitability: Evidence from Credit Group, International Finance and Banking Conference, FIBA 2014, Bucharest, Romania, 356-362.
Dietrich, A. ve Wanzenried, G. (2014). The Determinants of Commercial Banking Profitability in Low-, Middle-, and High-Income Countries, Ouarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 54(3), 337-354.
Dietrich, A. ve Wanzenried, G. (2011). What Determines the Profitability of Commercial Banks? New Evidence from Switzerland, Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 21(3), 307-327.
Flamini, V.; McDonald, C. ve Schumacher, L. (2009). The Determinants of Commercial Banks Profitability in Sub-Saharan Africa, IMF Working Paper, No: WP/09/15, January.
Goddard, J.; Molyneux, P. ve Wilson, J.O.S. (2004). The Profitability of European Banks: A CrossSectional and Dynamic Panel Analysis, Manchester School, 72(3), 363-381.
Goddard, J.; Liu, H.; Molyneux, P. ve Wilson, J.O.S. (2011). The Persistence of Bank Profit, Journal of Banking and Finance, 35(11), 2881-2890.
Greene, W.H. (2008). Econometric Analysis, 6th. Edition, Upper Saddle River: Prentice Hall.
Gullien, J.; Rengifo, E.W. ve Özsöz, E. (2014). Relative Power and Efficiency as a Main Determinant of Banks' Profitability in Latin America, Borsa Istanbul Review, 14, 119-125.
Hoffmann, P.S. (2011). Determinants of the Profitability of the US Banking Industry, International Journal of Business and Social Science, 2(22), 255-269.
Iatridis, G.E. ve Persakis, A.D. (2012). Bank Profitability Determinants under IFRS, Journal of Economics and Acounting, 3(1), 77-99.
Kaya, Y.T. (2001), Türk Bankacılık Sisteminde Net Faiz Marjının Modellenmesi, BDDK MSPD Çalışma Raporları, No: 2001/4, Haziran.
Kaya, Y.T. (2002). Türk Bankacılık Sektöründe Karlılığın Belirleyicileri: 1997-2000, BDDK MSPD Çalışma Raporları, No: 2002/1, Haziran.
Macit, F. (2012), Bank Spesific and Macroeconomic Determinants of Profitability: Evidence From Participation Banks in Turkey, Economics Bulletin, 32(1), 586-595.
Mamatzakis, E.C. ve Remoundos, P.C. (2003). Determinants of Greek Commercial Banks Profitability: 1989-2000, Spoudai, 53(1), 84-94.
Micco, A.; Panizza, U. ve Yanez, M. (2007). Bank Ownership and Performance. Does Politics Matter?, Journal of Banking and Finance, 31(1), 219-241.
Molyneux, P. ve Thornton, J. (1992). Determinants of European Bank Profitability: A Note, Journal of Banking and Finance, 16(6), 1173-1178.
Naceur, S.B. (2003). The Determinants of the Tunisian Banking Industry Profitability: Panel Evidence, Universite Libre de Tunis, Department of Finance Working Paper, October.
Naceur, S.B. ve Goaied, M. (2001). The Determinants of the Tunisian Deposit Banks' Performance, Applied Financial Economics, 11(3), 317-319.
Naceur, S.B. ve Goaied, M. (2008). The Determinants of Commercial Bank Interest Margin and Profitability: Evidence from Tunisia, Frontiers in Finance and Economics, 5(1), 106-130.
Naidu, V.N. ve Nair, M.S. (2014). Financial Liberalization and Determinants of Profitability of Commercial Banks in India, MPRA Papers, No: 57166, July.
Neely, M.C. ve Wheelock, D.C. (1997). Why Does Bank Performance Vary Across States?, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Reviews, March-April, 27-38.
Pasiouras, F. ve Kosmidou, K. (2007). Factors Influencing the Profitability of Domestic and Foreign Commercial Banks in the European Union, Research in International Business and Finance, 21(2), 222-237.
Roodman, D. (2006). How to Do xtabond2: An Introduction to "Difference" and "System" GMM in Stata, Center for Global Development Working Paper, No:103, December.
Roodman, D. (2008). A Note on the Theme of Too Many Instruments, Center for Global Development Working Paper, No: 125, May.
Roman, A. ve Danuletiu, A.E. (2013). An Empirical Analysis of the Determinants of Bank Profitability in Romania, Annales Universitatis Apulensis Series Oeconomica, 15(2), 580-593.
Sarıtaş, H. ve Saray, C. (2012). Türk Bankacılık Sektörünün Karlılık Performansının Analizi, Pamukkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, Sayı 11, 23-37.
Short, B.K. (1979). The Relation Between Commercial Bank Profit Rates and Banking Concentration in Canada, Western Europe and Japan, Journal of Banking and Finance, 3(3), 209-219.
Staikouras, C.K. ve Wood, G.E. (2004). The Determinants of European Bank Profitability, International Business and Economics Research Journal, 3(6), 57-68.
Taşkın, F.D. (2011), Türkiye'de Ticari Bankaların Performansını Etkileyen Faktörler, Ege Akademik Bakış, 11(2), 289-298.
Tatoğlu, F.Y. (2013). İleri Panel Veri Analizi: Stata Uygulamalı, 2. Baskı, İstanbul: Beta Yayınevi.
Torres-Reyna, O. (2007). Panel Data Analysis Fixed and Random Effects Using Stata, Data and Statistical Services Lecture Notes, Princeton University, December (http://www.princeton.edu/~otorres/Panel101.pdf).
Tunay, K.B. ve Silpagar, A.M. (2006a). Türk Ticari Bankacılık Sektöründe Karlılığa Dayalı Performans Analizi-I, TBB Araştırma Tebliğleri, No: 2006-01, Nisan.
Tunay, K.B. ve Silpagar, A.M. (2006b), Türk Ticari Bankacılık Sektöründe Karlılığa Dayalı Performans Analizi-II, TBB Araştırma Tebliğleri, No: 2006-02, Nisan.
Turgutlu, E. (2014). Dynamics of Profitability in the Turkish Banking Industry, Ege Akademik Bakış, 14(1), 43-52.
Uludağ, B.K. ve Gökmen, H. (2010). Türk Bankacılık Sektörünün Karlılığının Dinamik Yaklaşımla Test Edilmesi, 14. Ulusal Finans Sempozyumu, Selçuk Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F., 3-6 Kasım 2010, Konya.
Yaffee, R. (2003). A Primer for Panel Data Analysis, Connect: Information Technology at NYU, Fall, 1- 11.
Yin, W. ve Matthews, K. (2014). The Determinants and Profitability of Switching Costs in Chinese Banking, Cardiff Economics Working Papers, No: E2014/13, July.