Para Politikasının Kredi Faiz Oranlarına Geçişkenliği: Türkiye Örneği

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye için Ocak 2011-Haziran 2019 dönemi aylık verilerini kullanarak para politikasının kredi faiz oranlarına geçişkenliğini incelemektir. Bu amaç doğrultusunda, çalışmada eşbütünleşme analizindeki güncel gelişmeler dikkate alınmıştır. Buna göre, çalışmada hem yalnızca keskin kırılmaları dikkate alan hem de keskin ve aşamalı kırılmaları dikkate alan eşbütünleşme testleri kullanılmıştır. Çalışmadan elde edilen bulgular, yapısal kırılmaları modellemede farklı yaklaşımlar kullanmanın farklı sonuçlara yol açtığını göstermektedir. Hem keskin hem de aşamalı kırılmaları dikkate alan eşbütünleşme yönteminin bulguları, Türkiye’de para politikasının kredi faiz oranlarına geçişkenliğinin neredeyse tam olduğuna ve Türk bankacılık sektöründeki bankalar arasında yoğun bir rekabet olduğuna işaret etmektedir.

Monetary Policy Pass-Through to Lending Rates: The Case of Turkey

The goal of this paper is to examine monetary policy pass-through to lending rates for Turkey using monthly data over the period January 2011-June 2019. To that end, the paper considers recent developments in cointegration analysis. Accordingly, the paper employs a cointegration test with sharp breaks and a cointegration with both sharp and gradual breaks. The empirical findings imply that different methods in modelling structural breaks result in different results. The findings of the cointegration method with both sharp and gradual breaks indicate an almost complete monetary policy pass-through to lending rates in Turkey and a strong competition among banks in the Turkish banking sector.

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