Ekonomik Politika Belirsizliği ve Döviz Kuru Oynaklığı

Bu çalışmada ekonomik politika belirsizliğinin Dolar/TL ve EURO/TL kurlarındaki oynaklık üzerinde etkisi olup olmadığı sınır testi yaklaşımı kullanılarak analiz edilmektedir. Döviz kurları, ülkenin ekonomik koşulları yanında ekonomik ve politik ilişki içinde bulunulan ülkelerin politikalarından da etkilenebilmektedir. Analizde ABD ve Avrupa için Baker, Bloom ve Davis (2016) tarafından hesaplanan ekonomik politika belirsizliği endeksleri kullanılmıştır. Tahminlerimiz sonucunda uzun dönemde ABD’deki ekonomik politika belirsizliğinin Dolar/TL kurundaki oynaklığı arttırdığı saptanmıştır. EURO/TL kurundaki oynaklık ise Avrupa’daki ekonomik politika belirsizliğinden etkilenmemektedir. Bulgularımız, Dolar/TL kuruna istikrar kazandırmakta ekonomik politika belirsizliğinin önemini ortaya koymaktadır.

Economic Policy Uncertainty and Exchange Rate Volatility

In this study, whether the economic policy uncertainty (EPU) has an effect on the volatility in the Dollar/TL and EURO/TL exchange rates was analyzed using the bound testing approach. Exchange rates can be affected by the policies of the country and the economic conditions of countries in which the country has economic and political relations. EPU indices calculated by Baker, Bloom ve Davis (2016) for the US and Europe were used in the analysis. According to our estimates it is found that in the long run, EPU in USA increases the volatility in the Dolar/TL exchange rate. The volatility in EURO/TL exchange rate is not affected by the EPU in Europe. Our findings reveal the importance of EPU in order to stabilize USD/TL exchange rate.

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