Ambalaj Sektörünün Sürdürülebilirliği ve Petrol Bazlı Plastik: Plastik Ambalaj Sektörünün Petrole Olan Bağımlılığının Analizi

Bu çalışmanın amacı ambalaj sektörünün petrole olan bağımlılığının analiz edilmesidir. Yenilenebilir enerjinin yaygınlaşması ve otomotiv sektöründe benzinli arabaların yerini hızla elektrikli arabaların alması, petrol üreticilerinin kendilerine yeni pazarlar aramalarına neden olmaktadır. 2050 yılına gelindiğinde petrol üreticilerinin en büyük pazarının plastik ambalaj üreticilerinden oluşacağı tahmin edilmektedir. Ambalaj sektörünün plastiğe yani petrole olan bağımlılığı daha önceki çalışmalarda ihmal edilmiş bir konudur. Bu amaçla, Amerika’da faaliyet gösteren en büyük ambalaj firmalarının hisse senedi getirilerine petrol fiyatlarının ve makroekonomik faktörlerin etkilerinin incelenmesi ile bu sektörün daha iyi anlaşılması amaçlanmaktadır. 2000 Ocak ile 2019 Aralık tarihlerinde ambalaj firmalarının aylık hisse senedi fiyatları üstüne S&P500 endeksinin, VIX endeksinin, enflasyonun ve petrol fiyatlarının etkisi Panel ARDL modeli ile analiz edilmiştir. Sonuç olarak ambalaj sektöründeki firmaların hisse senedi fiyatlarına petrol fiyatlarının uzun vadede güçlü negatif etkisi bulunmuştur. Ayrıca VECM Granger testi sonucunda petrol fiyatlarının ambalaj sektöründeki firmaların hisse senedi fiyatlarını tahmin etme gücü olduğu bulunmuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Plastik, Ambalaj Sektörü, Petrol Fiyatları, Sürdürülebilirlik, Panel ARDL

Sustainability of the Packaging Industry and Oil Based Plastic: Analysis of the Plastic Packaging Industry's Dependence on Oil

The study aims to analyze the packaging industry's dependence on oil. The widespread use of renewable energy and the replacement of gasoline cars with electric cars cause oil producers to seek new markets. By 2050, it is estimated that the largest market for oil producers will be plastic packaging producers. The dependence of the packaging industry on plastic and petroleum is an issue neglected in the literature. Therefore, we aim to better understand this sector by examining the effects of oil prices and macroeconomic factors on the stock returns of the largest packaging companies operating in the USA. The effects of the S&P500 index, VIX index, inflation, and oil prices on monthly stock prices of packaging companies between January 2000 and December 2019 were analyzed with the Panel ARDL model. The results reveal that oil prices have a strong negative impact on the stock prices of companies in the industry in the long run. Morover, VECM Granger test proves that oil prices have the power to predict the stock prices of companies in the packaging industry.

Keywords:

Plastic, Packaging Industry, Oil Prices, Sustainability, Panel ARDL,

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