Haluk YERGİN, Mehmet MERCAN, Ömer YILMAZ

Türkiye-AB (15 Ülke) Arasındaki Dış Ticaret ve Gümrük Birliği’nin Marjinal Endüstri-İçi Ticarete Etkisi ve Endüstri-İçi Ticaretle Karşılaştırılması

Grubel-Lloyd yöntemine göre hesaplanan endüstri-içi ticaret katsayısının (EİT) yükselmesi her zaman o sektörde EİT’in artmasına işaret etmemektedir. İlgili sektörde endüstriler arası ticaretin artması da endüstri-içi ticaret katsayısının yükselmesine neden olabilmektedir. Bu nedenle, ilgili sektörde endüstri-içi ticaretin gerçek etkisini belirleyebilmek için “Marjinal Endüstri İçi Ticaret Katsayısı Endeksi” geliştirilmiştir. Çalışmada, AB (15 Ülke) ve Türkiye arasında 1990 -2008 dönemine ait dış ticaret ve Marjinal Endüstri-İçi Ticaret (MEİT) incelenmiş ve Gümrük Birliği’nin etkileri araştırılmıştır. Türkiye-AB 15 ülke arasındaki MEİT incelendiğinde 0-4 gruba ait birincil mallarda, MEİT oranlarında önemli istikrarlı değişim görülmemiş fakat dış ticaret hacminde artış kaydedilmiştir. Buna karşın 5-8 sanayi mallarında ise dış ticaret hacminde artış olmakla beraber, MEİT oranlarında değişim görülmüştür.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Marjinal Endüstriler İçi Ticaret, Endüstri İçi Ticaret, Avrupa Birliği, Türkiye

Increase in Intra-Industry Trade (IIT) co-efficient calculated according to Grubel-Lloyd model does not always indicate IIT increase in that sector. Increase in interindustry trade in the related sector may cause an increase in intra-industry trade co-efficient. Therefore, in order to define the real effect of intra-industry trade in the related sector, “Marginal Intra-Industry Co-Efficient Index” was developed. In the study, foreign trade and Marginal Intra-Industry Trade (MIIT) of the 1990-2008 period between EU (15 countries) and Turkey were examined, and effects of Customs Union were searched. In the MEIT analysis between Turkey-EU (15 countries), in the primary goods belonging to 0-4 group, an important stable change was not found on MIIT rates, but an increase in foreign trade volume was noted. In contrast, despite an increase in foriegn trade volume in 5-8 industrial goods, a change in MIIT rates was found

Keywords:

Marginal Intra-Industry Trade, Intra-Industry Trade, European Union, Turkey,

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