HAVA DURUMU VE AYIN EVRELERİ ANOMALİLERİNİN BIST’DE GETİRİ VE OYNAKLIĞA ETKİSİ

Bu çalışmanın amacı, hava durumu ve ayın evreleri anomalilerinin BIST'de meydana gelen getiri ve oynaklık üzerindeki etkilerini analiz etmektir. Çalışma kapsamında, anomalileri ve oynaklığı incelemek için 2002-2016 tarihleri arasında, BIST 100, BIST Mali, BIST Hizmet, BIST Sınai ve BIST Teknoloji endekslerine ait günlük kapanış verileri ile ARCH-GARCH yöntemleri kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Ayrıca, bu çalışma 2008 Küresel Kriz etkisini gösterebilmek amacıyla kriz ve kriz harici olmak üzere iki döneme ayrılmıştır. Bu kapsamda, 02.01.2008-30.08.2009 tarihleri arası kriz dönemi olarak belirlenmiştir. Yapılan çalışmanın sonucunda kriz ve kriz hariç dönemde ele alınan 5 endekste de oynaklık üzerinde ayın evreleri anomalileri saptanmıştır. Getiri açısından ise BIST Mali endeksinde kriz hariç dönemde pozitif getiri sağlayan dolunay etkisi, kriz döneminde ise negatif etkiye neden olan yeni ay anomalileri saptanmıştır. Hava durumu etkisi ise getiri açısından bir anomaliye neden olmazken oynaklık üzerinde saptanmıştır

INFLUENCE OF WEATHER AND LUNAR CYCLE ANOMALİES ON RETURN AND VOLATİLİTY İN BIST

The purpose of this study is to determine the effects wheather and lunar cycleanomalies on the volatility and return in the BIST. Within the scope of this research, daily closing data of BIST 100, BIST Financial, BIST Service, BIST Industrial and BIST Technology indices which were generated between 2002 and 2016 were used in order to investigate the anomalies and volatility and these data were analyzed by ARCH-GARCH methods. In addition, the study was investigated into two periods named as crisis and non-crisis periods in order to demonstrate the impact of the 2008 Global Crisis. Within this framework, the crisis period was determined between 02.01.2008 and 30.08.2009. As a result of this study, the impact of wheather and lunar cycleanomalies on volatility and return in the BIST were determined during crisis and non-crisis periods. In terms of return, except for the crisis in the BIST Financial index, full moon effect which gives a positive return in the period and new moon anomalies which cause negative effect in the crisis period have been determined. The weather effect is determined on volatility, which does not cause an anomaly in terms of return

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