Belirsizlik Kavramı, Belirsizlik Ölçütleri ve Belirsizliğin Makroekonomik Etkileri Üzerine Bir İnceleme

Bu çalışmada iktisatta belirsizlik kavramı üzerinde durulmuş, 2008/2009 küresel finansal krizisonrası oluşturulan belirsizlik ölçütleri değerlendirilmiş ve belirsizliğin makroekonomik etkileriincelenmiştir. Belirsizlik kavramı Cantillon ile iktisadi içerik kazanmıştır, ancak geleneksel iktisadıntam bilgi varsayımı altında kurulan modeller çerçevesinde gelişmesiyle belirsizlik kavramı büyükölçüde ihmal edilmiştir. Knight ve Keynes 1921 yılında yazdıkları “Risk, Belirsizlik ve Kar” ve“Olasılık Üzerine İnceleme” adlı çalışmalarında belirsizliği ölçülemez bir kavram olaraknitelendirmiştir. Ancak, belirsizlik kavramına yönelik ilgi iktisatta matematiksel modellerin artarakkullanımıyla birlikte 1950’lerden itibaren azalmıştır. 2008/2009 küresel finansal krizinde belirsizlikçeşitli açılardan ortaya çıkmış ve belirsizlik kavramına ilgi artmıştır. Kriz sonrası yapılan birçokçalışmada farklı belirsizlik ölçütleri oluşturulmuş ve belirsizliğin ekonomiye etkileri irdelenmiştir.

An Investigation on Uncertainty Concept, Uncertainty Measures and Macroeconomic Effects of Uncertainty

In this study, the concept of uncertainty in economics is elaborated, the uncertainty measures created after the 2008/2009 global financial crisis are evaluated and the effects of uncertainty on economy are discussed. The concept of uncertainty gained economic content with Cantillon, but with the development of the traditional economics under the assumption of perfect knowledge, the concept of uncertainty was largely ignored. In 1921 Knight and Keynes described uncertainty as an immeasurable concept in their respective studies of “Risk, Uncertainty and Profit” and “Treatise on Probability”. However, interest in the concept of uncertainty has diminished since 1950s, with the increasing use of mathematical models in economics. During the 2008/2009 global financial crisis, uncertainty emerged in various aspects and interest in the concept has increased. In many post-crisis studies, different uncertainty measures have been formed and the effects of uncertainty on the economy have been examined.

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