Prediction the Financial Success in Turkish Insurance Companies

Sigorta şirketleri, bireylerin sınırlı tasarruflarını verimli yatırımlara kanalize ederek tüm dünyada sermaye piyasasının gelişmesinde önemli bir role sahiptir. Çalışma ile güdülen amaç, çok boyutlu istatistiksel modelleri Türk sigorta sektörüne uygulayarak, şirketlerin fmansal başarısızlıkların yada finansal güçlüklerinin başlama dönemini önceden belirlemede kullanılan çok değişkenli model geliştirmek ve finansal başarısızlığı etkileyen faktörleri belirleyebilmektir. Bu amaçla, finansal sistemin önemli unsurlarından biri olan sigorta sektörünün finansal başarısızlıklarının öngörülmesine yönelik çok değişkenli istatistiksel yöntemlere dayanan erken uyarı modelleri geliştirilmiştir. 1992- 2003 yılları arasında hayat dışı elamenter branşlarda faaliyet gösteren 45 sigorta şirketi analiz kapsamına alınmış başarılı ve başarısız şirketleri ayırmada regresyon ve diskriminat analizi ile erken uyarı sistemi olarak 5 finansal oran saptanmıştır.

Türk Sigorta Şirketlerinde Finansal Başarının Öngörülmesi

Insurance companies have an important role in the improvement of capital markets all over the word by gathering the individuals' limited savings and orienting to high productive investments. The study; by applying multi dimensional statistical methods to the Turkish insurance sector, aims to determine factors affecting the financial failure and develop a multi variable model to predict the starting period of financial failures or difficulties. Early warning models based on multi variable statistical methods are therefore developed for this reason; mainly to predict financial failures in the insurance sector, being one of the financial system's important factors. 45 insurance companies acting in non-life elementary branches for the period 1992 to 2003 have been integrated into the analysis and 5 financial ratios, as early warning indicators have been defined while differentiating successful (non failed) and failed companies through regression and discriminator analyses.

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