DEVRİM TEORİLERİ IŞIĞINDA 2011 MISIR DEVRİMİ VE SONRASI: NE TÜR BİR DEVRİM GERÇEKLEŞTİ?

Önce Tunus’ta başlayarak ardından hızla diğer Arap ülkelerine yayılan “Arap Baharı” adı verilensüreçte Ortadoğu ülkelerinde yaşanan sosyo-politik olayların doğası çeşitli sosyal bilim çalışmalarına konuolmuştur. Bu makale öncelikle iki filozofun (Aristoteles ve John Locke) ve iki politik düşünürün (EdmundBurke ve Alexis de Tocqueville) devrim teorilerini, ardından Marksist devrim çalışmaları okulu ve 20. yüzyıldevrim teorilerini inceleyerek, 25 Ocak 2011 Mısır devriminin hangi devrim teori ve analizleri ile en iyi şekildeanlaşılabileceğini araştırmaktadır. Makalede öncelikle adı geçen devrim teorileri karşılaştırmalı olarak kısacaincelenmiş ve ardından Mısır’da Ocak 2011 ve sonrasında yaşanan hadiseler bu teoriler ışığındaanlamlandırılmaya çalışılmıştır. Karşılaştırmalı siyaset bilimi alanında bir çalışma olan makale aynı zamandaMısır’da 2011 ve sonrasındaki hadiselerin devrim olarak tanımlanıp tanımlanamayacağı meselesini adı geçendevrim teorileri perspektifinden soruşturmaktadır. Makalenin ulaştığı temel sonuç 2011 Mısır devriminin en iyişekilde 20. yüzyılda Jack A. Goldstone’un sultanî diktatörlüklerin devrilmelerine dair geliştirdiği analizler veTimur Kuran’ın “kır yangınları” adını verdiği devrim teorisi ile anlaşılabileceğidir

The 2011 Egyptian Revolution and Its Aftermath in Light of the Theories of Revolution: What Type of a Revolution Was It?

The nature of the socio-political events that started in Tunis and spread swiftly to other Arap countries during what is called the “Arab Spring” has been the subject of various studies in social sciences. This article examines firstly the theories of revolution developed by two philosophers (Aristotle and John Locke) and two political thinkers (Edmund Burke and Alexis de Tocqueville), and secondly the Marksist school of revolution and the 20th-century revolution studies. Then, it investigates which theories of revolution helps us better understand the 2011 Egyptian Revolution. Therefore, at first the theories of revolution are analyzed, and then the 2011 Egyptian Revolution is interpreted in light of the theories of revolution. Being a study in comparative politics, this article also questions whether the events in 2011 and its aftermath could be defined by the term “revolution” from the perspective of theories of revolution. The basic finding of this article is that the 2011 Egyptian Revolution can be best understood by applying Jack A. Goldstone theory about the fall of sultanistic dictatorships, and Timur Kuran’s theory of revolution that he dubbed “prairie fires.”

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