İklim Politikası Belirsizliği CO2 emisyonunu etkiler mi? ABD'den Ampirik Kanıtlar

Son dönemlerde sera gazı emisyonundaki önemli artış göstermiş ve bundan dolayı çevre kirliliği sorunu küresel bir sorun haline gelmiştir. Sera gazı emisyonunda en büyük payı ise karbondioksit emisyonu almaktadır. Bu çalışmanın amacı ABD’nin 2000M1-2021M11 döneminde sektörlere göre CO2 emisyon ile iklim politikası belirsizliği endeksi, enerji tüketimi ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemektir. Bu kapsamda çalışmada asimetrik nedensellik ve zamana göre değişen nedensellik yöntemleri kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre iklim politikası belirsizliği ile CO2 emisyonu ve enerji tüketimi arasında sektörlere göre asimetrik nedensellik ilişkisinin değiştiği görülmektedir. Zamanla değişen nedensellik analiz sonucuna göre iklim politikası belirsizliği ile tüm sektörlerde diğer değişkenler arasında ilişkiye sahip olduğunu ve bu nedenden dolayı ABD’de elektrik, konut, sanayi ve ticari sektörlerdeki CO2 emisyonunun enerji tüketimi açısından önemli bir değişken olduğunu söyleyebiliriz. Bundan dolayı çevresel sorunun azaltılması için politika yapıcı ve uygulayıcıların iklim politikası belirsizliğini azaltmaya yönelik politikalar uygulaması gerekmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

CO2 emisyonu, İklim Politikası Belirsizliği, Asimetrik Nedensellik, Zamanla Değişen Nedensellik

Does The Climate Policy Uncertainty affect CO2 emissions? Empirical Evidence from the USA

Recently, there has been a significant increase in greenhouse gas emissions, and therefore the environmental pollution problem has become a global problem. The biggest share in greenhouse gas emissions is carbon dioxide emission. The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between CO2 emissions, climate policy uncertainty index, energy consumption, and economic growth by sectors in the 2000M1-2021M11 period of the USA. In this context, asymmetric causality and time-varying causality methods are used in the study. According to the findings, it is seen that the asymmetric causality relationship between the climate policy uncertainty, CO2 emissions, and energy consumption varies according to the sectors. According to the time-varying causality analysis results, we can say that there is a relationship between climate policy uncertainty and other variables in all sectors, and for this reason, CO2 emissions in electricity, residential, industrial, and commercial sectors are an important variable in terms of energy consumption in the USA. Therefore, policymakers and practitioners need to implement policies to reduce climate policy uncertainty in order to reduce environmental problems.

Keywords:

CO2 emissions, The Climate Policy Uncertainty, Asymmetric Causality, Time-Varying Causality,

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